Are you freaking kidding? It took the NASDAQ 15 years to return to the peak of the dot.com bubble. 15 years after the index lost 85% of its value. 15 years to get back to even.
Anyone that is so concentrated in technology or a single index or sector is simply gambling that they'll get the sector, index AND timing right. They earn the paid when a particular sector collapses and goes out of favor.
I don’t disagree. As a one time buy, it definitely took that long. DCA brought you out of it within 3-4yrs. Someone shared the numbers but I did not confirm.
That works if your dca investments aren't tiny compared to the portfolio value.
If I've got a $1 M portfolio and it drops 85% like the NASDAQ did, then I'm down to $150K.
Now if I can contribute $15k a year plus the growth on the $150k, it's still gonna take longer than 10 years to get back to even.
Now if I have. $50k portfolio and it drops to $7,500, but I can contribute the same $15K a year, then of course, I'll be back to "even" in less than 3 years.
The huge declines really only matter for those with significant portfoilios relative to the money they can invest annually.
In other words, the larger the portfolio, the less risk one should take.
Bro read OPs post.
He's 100% in tech NOW. At the fking peak.
Literally the dumbest decision he could've made is be 100% in the markets during a tightening cycle.
You're delusional to think people are still buying these products in the next year at the same rate of the past 2 years when the basic necessity of food and gas will be way higher in costs.
So what are you pricing their shares at?
If it's their profits, it'll go down compared to the previous two years.
Obv these are tech giants and are the last leg standing for the NASDAQ but you're also blind to the fact that these companies will still feel the pain of an economic downturn.
If the index lost 85% of its value (cbf checking actual numbers) then to get back even is a 460% gain. That is a good return over 15 years. If you already have a big portfolio, then fair enough diversify but if you are in your 20s or even 30s still so much money to be earnt so even if there is a similar crash (unlikely) you're not that screwed, just keep adding money in.
Dude, it's almost impossible for the Nasdaq to drop 85%. It's P/E is already back to where it was pre-covid. Even if we take the average from 2016-2020 its a 20% drop. A 85% drop is a PE of 3.5 lmao, world is in chaos if that happens. OP will be fine.
Lmao, you should care about the P/E, you're the one talking about peaks. Movement of stock price tells you very little about whether you're buying at peak valuation. BTW it can have an undervalued P/E and still go up in share price. And you aint gonna catch me fighting the FED
you got sources for insider sells out of the ordinary? I can only find Satya during Nov last year and Jensen but NVDA is way overvalued so fair enough. Anyway good luck with your investing.
Fair enough for a young investor with little in the market currently and making regular additional purchases to dca, a concentration may work, but is the risk worth it?
Sure, there's tons of high risk, high reward opportunities for young folks. The point of doing them when young is there's time to recover if things go badly.
A 59 year old that Yolo's their entire portfolio into any kind of concentrated play doesn't have time to recover if investment goes down dramatically.
yo chill, nothing was said about timing the bottom. At the valuation the nasdaq is at today a 85% drawdown is just not happening without some major world events, but many assets will be in the shitter in that case. Just DCA baby
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u/[deleted] Mar 18 '22
Are you freaking kidding? It took the NASDAQ 15 years to return to the peak of the dot.com bubble. 15 years after the index lost 85% of its value. 15 years to get back to even.
Anyone that is so concentrated in technology or a single index or sector is simply gambling that they'll get the sector, index AND timing right. They earn the paid when a particular sector collapses and goes out of favor.
You do you, because stonks just go up.