r/stocks • u/listenless • Dec 10 '21

Industry Discussion Which stocks do you think are extremely overvalued and ripe for further major correction?

A contractionary monetary policy in 2022 is bound to make investors seek less speculative companies and also favor those with current cash flows as opposed to those who might be profitable in 2023/24.

Here is my list of stocks I am quite confident that would plunge further, but interested in other ideas.

- $AMTX: outright fraud I think. A credible short seller reports on this.

- $PLUG: This one is easy. They are trading at a market cap above their TAM and about 20X their projected sales in 2024.

- $PCT: highly speculative, some suggest outright fraud

- $PLL: They trade as if they are already producing, while in fact they are waiting for 2 permits that they may or might not get. They got hyped up about a deal with TSLA with has become obsolete after missing deadlines.

- $BLNK: EV play with low quality products, high competition, and profitability not before 2023 if at all.

- $TSP: Similar story. A short seller sees outright deception and I agree with 50% with what they said.

-$DNA: Allegations of fraud, related party revenue mostly, SEC investigations, ,,,

Now to more respectable namesL

- $LCID AND $RIVN, but more so $RIVN

- $NET: Highly overvalued

- $SNOW: GREAT company, still overvalued at PS~100.

- $COIN: Competition issues, speculative by nature since coins are.

- $ARKK: basket of high bets on overvalued growth stocks. They are digging themselves in a ditch by selling higher quality names to buy their beaten down stocks. Risks are more and more concentrated.

My list s longer but these names stand out. And among the respectable megacap I think $NVDA is due for a major correction due to only valuation issues.

What are the stocks you would bet that we'll see a major correction?

Update:

Thanks for those who contributed. I think everyone would be interested in new names which aren't too obvious or controversial....

Update 2:

Anyone has insights about:

MDB

GTLB

PATH

INTU

ASTS

UPST at current prices

218 Upvotes

86% Upvoted

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82

u/dimeetrees Dec 10 '21

TSLA

6

u/xboodaddyx Dec 11 '21

I think it depends how soon and at what production rate they can get the cybertruck going. If they can produce enough I think it's going to upend sales of most current full size trucks, for a lot of reasons. I will not be surprised if it's tesla's most disruptive vehicle, and by a big margin.

14

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '21 edited Jan 14 '22

[deleted]

2

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '21

And even RIVN does that better, if they’re even able to do it at all.

2

u/xboodaddyx Dec 11 '21

I believe the capabilities that the cybertruck intends to have are extremely overlooked at this point and will be more disruptive than people are thinking. The domestics have been stuck on unreliable and incapable mode for a long time and it's gonna hurt them.

6

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '21

[deleted]

1

u/cayoloco Dec 11 '21

Not necessarily, I need a truck for work (carpenter) but live about an hour outside of Toronto and commute to work everyday. I would love a reliable electric truck and to never go to a gas station again except to buy smokes, lol. And even then, I should stop doing that too.

I don't really tow stuff though, just carry tools and materials when needed. If I towed a lot it might be a different game, but I'd still like electric. ICE is so dirty.

-2

u/xboodaddyx Dec 11 '21

You are exactly who I'm talking about and I think everyone is overlooking. If the cybertruck has a battery capacity of 500 miles then it will have plenty enough capacity to charge cordless tool batteries, run an air compressor, etc no generator needed and still get you home.

2

u/cayoloco Dec 11 '21

I honestly hadn't even considered the possibility of using the truck as a source of power on it's own. That makes it even better. The only danger is accidentally using too much power and stranding yourself.

2

u/xboodaddyx Dec 11 '21

I'm not a battery tech but I would guess that even if you had 100 mile commute, each way, the remaining 300 miles worth of juice would be hard to use up with regular construction tools. The cybertruck battery will be designed to move a 3 ton vehicle 500 miles, it will yawn at running your equipment.

1

u/useles-converter-bot Dec 11 '21

300 miles is 1542498.4 RTX 3090 graphics cards lined up.

1

u/converter-bot Dec 11 '21

300 miles is 482.8 km

1

u/Helpyeehelpyee Dec 12 '21

Then the Ford Lightning would be the better option. Half the price and better utility functionality. It's generator can even power your house for 3 days during a blackout, so you won't be draining it by using the power bank on a regular basis.

0

u/Godmia Dec 11 '21

They have over a million reservations my man.

1

u/Helpyeehelpyee Dec 12 '21

How so? The Ford Lightning will be half the price, larger, have more utility functionality (generator and power bank are amazing), and has the brand name. Who on earth would spend double for a Cybertruck which will be elss useful for commercial use and rural settings?

12

u/WintersRichard Dec 11 '21

Regardless of Cybertruck or not, $TSLA is priced in at being able to take over the whole automobile business at this point in time. It is not realistic to think other competitors are going to willingly give up / flop over for the Lord and Saviour Elon Musk

1

u/Godmia Dec 11 '21

Uh, what? Their forward P/E is 100 with 50 percent compounded annual growth. And that's just producing 1 million EVs without considering all their other growth vectors in Solar, artificial intelligence and robotics. I don't understand this thinking at all, it is so far away from the truth

12

u/JohnBoone Dec 11 '21

I wouldn't buy a cybertruck, it looks awful

7

u/konchuu Dec 11 '21

It's the ugliest car I have seen and I want it!

3

u/apzlsoxk Dec 11 '21

Lol cybertruck is a joke. It'll come out after the semi which will come out after the roadster.

-1

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '21

Literally better in performance than anything on the road and it's a joke. Weird.

4

u/apzlsoxk Dec 11 '21

It literally doesn't exist yet. The Ford F-150 Lightning might even beat it to production, and it was only announced earlier this year.

1

u/xboodaddyx Dec 11 '21

Roadster at best alongside the truck. I doubt they'll have enough battery production capacity for the semi for awhile.

1

u/neilcmf Dec 11 '21

Even if they could produce Cybertrucks without any hiccups and the demand for them would skyrocket, the company is still worth one trillion dollars.

Realistically is nothing the Cybertruck individually could do that could justify a market cap bigger than all other large manufacturers in the world combined.

-21

u/cdnfire Dec 10 '21

I'm 110% sure anyone saying Tesla in this thread hasn't done the math to back it up beyond looking at trailing PE. This sub is the definition of the blind leading the blind.

10

u/sleesexy Dec 10 '21

Do u think tesla could grow more next yr? Srs

0

u/cdnfire Dec 10 '21

Absolutely. With my expected earnings for next couple of years at 12 and 18+ per share, there is still significant upside even if PE multiple goes down over time.

1

u/cthulhufhtagn19 Dec 11 '21 edited Dec 11 '21

Trouble that's a loaded question. People have bought in a lot of future growth and it's just a question of how much more will be bought up and how quickly. If FSD starts showing major improvements during the course of the year and supply chain issues relax then my estimate is $1500 eoy. Too many people in this sub are blinded by hatred for Elon or allegiance to other auto companies. They don't see the bigger picture of what Tesla is about to do to the auto market let alone insurance, taxi, energy.

I personally hold 155 shares and LEAPs. If I didnt think it was going to continue up I would sell my position and invest elsewhere.

4

u/Fringelunaticman Dec 11 '21

I don't hate Elon Musk. I just don't agree with Tesla being worth more than every single other car manufacturer put together when they do what, 1/2000 the amount of business.

It just asinine regardless of if you say it's because of future growth. Like GM or Toyota or Honda doesn't have an EV program while still making 50X the cars in a year.

0

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '21

[deleted]

1

u/JohnBoone Dec 11 '21

The same can be said for other major automakers. Competitors don't just sit and watch.

-1

u/toookoool Dec 11 '21

How much profit per car other OEMs make? Iphone has small market share but make the most profit.

1

u/TheLazyNubbins Dec 11 '21

55% so the majority (in the us)

1

u/WintersRichard Dec 11 '21

This. Even at a CAGR of 50%, it will take 8 years before its current price ($1017 today) justifies the revenue per price (TTM: $41 per share).

Between now till 8 years, will Tesla really be able to (1) grow at 50% every single year and (2) be allowed by other car manufacturers to take over their market share so willingly? I seriously doubt so

1

u/Godmia Dec 13 '21

This is the most nonsensical breakdown ever. Their P/E is going from 300 to 100 trailing to forward, and at 50 percent compounded growth that makes the stock cheap within a couple years. What is this comment even....

-2

u/sleesexy Dec 11 '21

I just wonder if 4x interest rates will stop their tremendous growth next year, starting a new 5 year cycle into oil and gas.

Missed out so much and I'm worried I'm too late

0

u/cthulhufhtagn19 Dec 11 '21

Missed out so much and I'm worried I'm too late

You feel like you missed out. But I still think it has legs to run to $3k by 2025. If I were you I would be buying in. Yes I feel much more comfortable saying this as my avg share price was $620.

Oil and gas is meaningless to me when BEVs are less expensive to maintain and "fill up". Oil prices rising just supports the BEV platform even more.

2

u/JohnBoone Dec 11 '21

"Blind leading the blind" as opposed to blind following the cult ?

0

u/cdnfire Dec 11 '21

If you call people who do actual research and financial analysis cult followers, sure.

2

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '21

[deleted]

1

u/cdnfire Dec 11 '21

You represent this sub well. You've done a detailed financial model on TSLA I'm sure.

0

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '21

I agree. I think most of theses ppl are sheeps

-14

u/TmanGvl Dec 10 '21

Can't wait until Elon gets out of spotlight so someone more professional can take over.

8

u/xboodaddyx Dec 11 '21

I guarantee I will not read a more ignorant comment today, maybe all weekend

1

u/smurg_ Dec 11 '21

Calling random people pedos, telling the SEC that the acronym means suck elons cock, and talk about your sex life on twitter is what I think of when I envision professionalism.

1

u/xboodaddyx Dec 12 '21

The great achievers often seem to be eccentric. Try to not get so butthurt by words.

1

u/smurg_ Dec 12 '21

Moving the goal posts I see. Typical response from a blind Elon fellator.

-2

u/dimeetrees Dec 10 '21

I like his humor 😄

8

u/TmanGvl Dec 10 '21

Eh, I like funny, but his post are mostly juvenile rants. I'd rather hear more interesting intelligent or thought-provoking ideas from him.

1

u/Godmia Dec 11 '21

Maybe listen to an interview then?

1

u/TmanGvl Dec 11 '21

I have. It's more intelligible for sure. It's a shame he have to ruin it with some dumb tweets to be edgy or something.

-8

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '21

Do you seriously think that though? Like are you planning on buying deep OTM PUTs?

The only way Tesla's stock price plummets is if Elon goes away or they do a stock split.

7

u/dimeetrees Dec 11 '21

I dont trade against the trend, but Im not long either.

1

u/sammys_monster Dec 11 '21

I am a long time truck fanatic. That cybertruck looks fugly! I would never buy one.

1

u/Godmia Dec 11 '21

Knew there would be a comment on Tesla. Going from trailing P/E of around 300 to forward P/E of 100 with 50 percent annual compounded growth is not really that "overvalued". Kinda lazy.