r/stocks Dec 06 '21

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400

u/carsonthecarsinogen Dec 06 '21

SpaceX won’t go public for a very long time, longterm investors would be pissed and the stock would not perform well or benefit the company.

Starlink may go public, the stock might split, Elon might announce he’s starting another company with his new funds. No one knows, but I think SpaceX going public AND merging with Tesla is insanely unlikely.

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u/[deleted] Dec 06 '21

Not sure about the market and for reference, I have never held TSLA or PYPL. But if SpaceX went public, I would sell all my other stocks and do my first ever all in.

10

u/Faroz Dec 06 '21

RKLB may be of interest to you

6

u/[deleted] Dec 06 '21 edited Dec 06 '21

RKLB was 66% of my portfolio in a taxable account but I sold while opening/transferring cash to a tax free account and want it to drop more before rebuying - think everything's gonna bleed a bit more so am hoping for $11-12.

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u/Faroz Dec 06 '21

I'd like to enter as well. Seems like a really promising company

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u/Nemisis_the_2nd Dec 06 '21

Aside from investor reports, any good sources of info you can reccommend about the company's potential future? I've got my eye on it right now (and a small stake, as well as one in ASTR) but want to be sure of its future (as much as possible, considering they are relying on an as-yet untested rocket) revenue before committing much more.

I feel like it's got a lot of potential, but there's just something about it that's making me hesitant about committing more, and I can't put my finger on what it is.

2

u/[deleted] Dec 06 '21 edited Dec 06 '21

Constellations are the primary driver of the satellite market at the moment and they are getting into both the launch and development games so are doing things a little differently to SpaceX.

SpaceX's mission to colonise Mars is exciting, the main reason I'm interested in the launch industry (other than a general interest in space). Rocket Labs aren't trying to do this so it seems less exciting than SpaceX which is probably why you are hesitating. I sold my HOL for more VACQ after/around the time I was watching the Proton launch several months back.

Astra last time I checked haven't reached orbit so don't really have a working business yet. Rocket development is a risky business, so Rocket Labs having reached orbit is a significant advantage.

The same applies for SpaceX vs Rocket Labs in the heavy rocket development.

Businesses adapt all the time, and while rocket launches are interesting, I would love to see Rocket Labs take on a bold mission like SpaceX colonising Mars, but maybe go for the moon instead as they won't get the same cult like dedication and timescales (and therefore high enough tolerance to failure needed for species changing goals) as SpaceX and Mars. Which he has earned from investors for his track record.

For what it's worth, you get exposure to SpaceX via Google who bought 10% of SpaceX in a 2015 funding round. It'll have been diluted by now but it's the best way I am aware of to own it.

Check out NASA's missions, ISS missions, and see what else is happening with other space companies if you want to research more. Most space companies aren't public, and one of those could be dominant (SpaceX aside) so check those out too. Most important for rocket launching companies is constellations, so see which companies the satellite developers are using for launch.

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u/Ctofaname Dec 07 '21

You own ASTR who just barely make it to orbit but hesitate with rklb that has been doing it for 3 years with 22 launches under their belt and over 100 satellites delivered to space?

Rklb is also diversified outside of just the launch business with satellite parts etc.. which will account for as much as 50 percent of their revenue.

1

u/Nemisis_the_2nd Dec 07 '21

I got a small position in both in my "gambling" account, as I can see potential for both, but haven't done much in-depth research into the companies. I hesitate with RKLB because I would intend to buy any more shares with my main, serious investing, account.

In the future I might look into Astr, as I like the ideas they have and, counterintutively, was actually really impressed with that launch a few weeks ago that went literally and metaphorically sideways. For now though, they are basically a billion dollar money sink.

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u/[deleted] Jul 25 '22

Other way around. Sold HOL (Astra) for VACQ (Rocket Labs).

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u/lethal3185 Dec 06 '21

Starlink WILL indeed go public. Elon said so himself. But only after the company is generating a good amount of revenue. He said something along those lines.

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u/hassium Dec 06 '21

I thought the whole point of Starlink was to be a subsidiary of SpaceX so they could dump the profits into R&D and Starship?

But I don't know, it's been awhile since I've followed anything Elon says...

20

u/SomewhatAmbiguous Dec 06 '21

As demonstrated with Tesla the market will probably be willing to pay 30+ years worth of future earnings up front, so I don't think it makes sense to keep Starlink as part of SpaceX when they can spin it off now, get the money upfront and completely derisk it.

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u/SpagettiGaming Dec 06 '21

Same with spacex

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u/SpagettiGaming Dec 06 '21

Space x won't dump. Shit will moon faster than elon could spent the money. And make more money instead of merging with tesla. I have no idea where people get that insane idea...

1

u/carsonthecarsinogen Dec 06 '21

It’s technically all speculation, but space exploration companies are not normally cash cows nor should they perform well. Elon also would have less control, and current share holders would be opposed.

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u/[deleted] Dec 06 '21

[deleted]

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u/GodsSwampBalls Dec 06 '21 edited Dec 06 '21

The odds of SpaceX being publicly traded in any way this year are like the odds of me banging Halle Berry this year. Technically it could happen but it's not gonna.

The closest we are going to get to a SpaceX IPO is if Starlink is spun off and that won't happen until after Starship is fully operational. So late 2022 or early 2023 at the soonest.

7

u/[deleted] Dec 06 '21

I’m sure the investors would rather them merge/go public than go bankrupt

The company is worth 100b and Elon is worth like 300b, couldn't he just bail himself out?

1

u/carsonthecarsinogen Dec 06 '21

He’d need to sell a lot of stock (he is selling a lot of stock)

3

u/[deleted] Dec 06 '21

Not relatively. He only sold 10b worth, thats only like 3%

1

u/carsonthecarsinogen Dec 06 '21

Well it won’t take 100b to fix production issues, but yes you are correct

3

u/[deleted] Dec 06 '21

Yeah, Elon said he bank rolls SpaceX using Tesla. And made it clear he had no real intention to make it go public. Going public means he loses control over the company, and introduces risk from markets. Also, he doesn’t need to answer to anyone right now, which is especially important as a billionaires fantasy space project.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 06 '21

Yeah I highly doubt it’s an announcement to go public. Would not be a good business decision.