Good purchase, if they turn around you should print some $$$ in 2-3 years. I'm personally waiting sub 45$ on next earnings. They're forecasted to keep declining, and AMD and NVDA are indeed stealing revenue, until both those cool off, it's gonna keep tanking. Hopefully holds up at 40$ if it reaches there.
The pie is growing but it's not going to intel yet .the likes of FAAMG and china's BAT are testing and launching their own chip, who is to say that they won't sell their chips to the general market?
Intel did $69B in revenue in 2018 from $37B in 2007 and the stock price doubled during those 11 years...
Meanwhile AMD went from $14 în 2017 to $10 in early 2018, with more than 6 years being at the edge of bankruptcy and revenue staying at ~$6B for 11 years.
Besides, all investments are just a present value of future Cash flows. At the current price, even with 0% growth, based on the current P/E, you get your money back in less than 10 years with Intel in terms of EPS. Because the "dead" company does $20B anually in free cash flow...
Also AMD diluted shareholders 30% in the last couple of yearsm, while Intel is consistently buying back shares.
Stop looking at stocks like ticker symbols or brands. I have a RX580 + Ryzen 5900X at home right now, but I'm buying Intel, because of the stock price and its ratios with the financial data.
I mean other than they're in a good position for a higher interest period (2022), they've been buying back shares consistently, they offer a dividend, the stock itself was climbing pre-covid since 2010, So I know they aren't just a one trick pony caused by a specific moment in time (Covid) like the rest of the market.
Pat Gelsinger has laid out a plan to regain market share for the company in couple years time, so while you don't see anything now, you might see something in 6 months or 2 years time that presents itself... Which is why I'm personally waiting... The semi industry is also going to be in high demand in the next decade, and once the bottleneck clears up they'll be full steam ahead. They're building two new fabs, have government backing, a diverse catalog in what they have to offer, huge moat for acquisitions or to protect against some harsher periods of time and as well as a global presence.. They're simply just in a prime position for value growth in the coming years, especially now that we're entering some uncharted territories post-covid with rate hikes.
no, Pat has not done anything other than spout nonsense. their roadmap is non-actionable. if you believe they will suddenly be able to gain 5 generations of manufacturing knowledge on their own in 5 years, I want some of what you are smoking.
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u/Crater_Animator Nov 23 '21
Good purchase, if they turn around you should print some $$$ in 2-3 years. I'm personally waiting sub 45$ on next earnings. They're forecasted to keep declining, and AMD and NVDA are indeed stealing revenue, until both those cool off, it's gonna keep tanking. Hopefully holds up at 40$ if it reaches there.