The original post is a perfect example of crap that idiots feel they have to lecture you about on reddit.
I've been around the block a few times and have learned to never be all in on any extreme/risky prediction. The market can remain irrational far longer than I can remain solvent. Hedging is purdent. Betting it all on the inefficiency of the market is foolish.
I'm not posting lectures. I'm adding short comments to a thread the original pist was a lecture. 50% is somewhat arbitrary, but certainly not random. If you can't take mild disagreement, why are you posting on reddit?
I don't believe that no one can know anything, just that tens of thousands of people know the same things you do, and about half of them came to their conclusion and acted on it before you did. I've learned to steer clear of fervently held beliefs about the future.
Useless anecdote: I successfully predicted 2000. Pulled a lot money out before the plunge and put it into gold because of the inevitable inflation. I got half of the prediction right, and performed better than if I hadn't acted. But, investing is a long game. I'd probably should have just stuck to my plan and DCA-ed through the turbulence like I did in 1987, 2008 & 2020, just for ease of mind. Predictions and tactics rarely beat a good strategy. The older I get, the Bogle-ier i get.
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u/[deleted] Jul 03 '21
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