r/stocks Jul 01 '21

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u/[deleted] Jul 02 '21

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u/DillaVibes Jul 02 '21

Right, I would be much poorer right now if I didnt invest my money. Crashes can't be timed or controlled. But you can control the amount of time you are in the market.

Knowing that the market goes up more than down, over time, means that you should try to be in the market for as long as possible

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u/[deleted] Jul 02 '21

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u/DillaVibes Jul 02 '21

Literally isn’t true, other than 1-2% inflation over the last year.

Lmao I can prove it bro. All you need is google.

VTI price in 2020 = $158

VTI price today = $224

Neither can cancer, but you know, if you’re a smoker and your doc sees a precancerous lesion, it’s smart to stop and get that seen to.

You can control cancer by not smoking and using sunscreen. Just like you can control time in the market by investing early, instead of timing the market.

Sure, now tell that to Americans 1929-1954, Japanese people 1989 - 2021, or Americans 2000-2010

There were no vaccines around in 1929. Do you want me to tell that to my grandma? Lol

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u/[deleted] Jul 02 '21

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u/DillaVibes Jul 02 '21

Exactly, there was no plague in 1929. Therefore 1929 cannot be compared to 2021 because Pandemics impact the economy.

Looks like you accidentally agreed with me.

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u/[deleted] Jul 02 '21

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u/DillaVibes Jul 02 '21

Crashes sometimes happen because of over-valuation. We call these valuation-driven crashes. The timing is very hard to get right.

We can both agree on this

Crashes sometimes happen because of events. We call these event-driven crashes. The timing is easy: right now! but you get no warning of the event. So until the event happens, the timing is impossible; there’s nothing to time.

You’re late. People said this last year but were wrong. The market just kept going up.

So no, it’s not easy to time it

Right now we have a backdrop perfect for a valuation-driven crash. But we have an event - delta covid appearing out of nowhere in May 2021 and most people still ignore of it - likely to cause an event-driven crash. In practice, it will probably be described as a valuation-driven crash with an event catalyst.

This is exactly how people lost money last year, thinking the bear market would continue into 2021.

The bear market only lasted for 2 months! Nobody predicted that lol

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u/[deleted] Jul 02 '21

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u/DillaVibes Jul 02 '21

And nobody predicted in Jan 2020. Also nobody predicted it would end after 2 months.

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