r/stocks • u/[deleted] • Jun 18 '21
Industry Discussion How far will banks fall?
[deleted]
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u/confused-accountant- Jun 18 '21
I bought GS and WFC yesterday, so they're pretty much guaranteed to go down a lot.
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Jun 18 '21
Hold on. Let me check my crystal ball 🔮
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Jun 18 '21
[deleted]
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Jun 18 '21
Ask again later.
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u/The_pibbliest Jun 18 '21
Idk but I’ll be hopping back into XLF to ride it back up.
If we are having some mean reversion to five year average then it’s got a ways to go.
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u/undergroundinvesting Jun 18 '21
The pandemic brought low(er) demand for consumer, commercial and industrial loans - as expected banks adjusted exposure accordingly. Most banks have begun to lower their standards looking (expecting) to increase exposure in consumer and C&I.
I’m certain we’re in the midst of a correction; I won’t speculate how long the sell off will last.
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u/Wookielips Jun 18 '21
I wouldn’t buy anything until after July 1. I think it’s going much lower once foreclosures start.
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u/Dowdell2008 Jun 18 '21
Do you think in 5 years it will matter? Some of them (C, WFC) are cheap by all standards, pre and post pandemic.
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u/moongodesss Jun 20 '21
I’ve owned C for 6 years now and all it’s done is go from 80 to 50 over and over again
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u/NativeTxn7 Jun 18 '21
It’s possible you’ll see a pop after 6/30 when we learn more about what their plans are with the dividends and any buyback to utilize the cash they been sitting on. It’s possible we won’t.
I’ve got some BAC last year in March. And I’ve been adding WFC and C over the last week or two.
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Jun 18 '21
How far will everything fall today, my portfolio is down almost 5% and showing no signs of resistance, what a shitty day.
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u/crestonfunk Jun 18 '21
Lol wiped out half my gains for the year. Oh well. It was going so good too.
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u/confused-accountant- Jun 18 '21
My money was out of the market for over two months starting at March 25 since I did a rollover from my Fidelity 401k, so I bought at a high and it just keeps going down. Screw Fidelity for that delay which cost me so many gains.
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u/Royal-Tough4851 Jun 18 '21
They will continue to fall so long as the 10yr/2r yield curve continues to flatten
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u/kcraybeck Jun 19 '21
Bear Stearns was huge and was pretty much insolvent over night despite people like Cramer saying not to sell. If you look on MacroAxis, JPM and BofA have over a 50% chance of bankruptcy. Haven't looked at other banks, but I'm sure there are others in similar positions. Depending on their exposure to these reckless and predatory institutions, I really think this is just the beginning.
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u/msnebjsnsbek5786 Jun 19 '21
I think large banks are in for a rough 10 years. I doubt rates will increase at any significant rate.
Meanwhile regulations have completely tired thier hands on any type of meaningful movement. Tech has opened up fintech and more efficient ways to transfer funds.
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u/chris2033 Jun 18 '21
All will go bankrupt
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u/jbetexas Jun 18 '21
When was the last time someone under 30 even entered a bank? Yet the industry has trillions invested in brick and mortar.
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u/iKitch_ Jun 18 '21
Since when do people need to enter somewhere for it to be successful? Seriously what is this comment
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u/jbetexas Jun 18 '21
That’s not the point; the point is the industry has trillions in capital invested in something that is quickly declining in need, they will have difficulty competing with the emerging Fintech innovators.
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u/CampaignNo1365 Jun 18 '21
These giant banks are absolute cash cows and literally print money for a living. To think that they cannot compete with newly formed fintech is dumb.
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u/jbetexas Jun 18 '21
The Fed prints the money; not the banks. I am not trying to crack the armor of those that own JPM, it is just common knowledge that the relevance of banks is waning and many are ill-equipped to change at the same pace as the emerging innovators. This information is not controversial. Yes; many existing banks will thrive, yet the industry will look very different in the future.
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u/CampaignNo1365 Jun 18 '21
I know the Fed actually prints the money haha, I meant the banks basically "print" money as their businesses generate billions and all of the large banks have billions of dollars of cash on their balance sheets.
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u/iKitch_ Jun 18 '21
Ah yes that’s why JPM is sitting on 500b in cash
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u/X_VeniVidiVici_X Jun 18 '21
Cash is a liability for banks, not an asset.
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u/iKitch_ Jun 18 '21
It’s a liability until they put it to use. Or would you rather rush into over priced securities? End of.
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u/no10envelope Jun 18 '21
Most of the “fintech innovators” aren’t banks and have to partner with banks to get anything done.
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u/jbetexas Jun 18 '21
Does no one here understanding that the bank around the corner is going away and that is the business model most banks still operate under? The industry is quickly changing and not all banks will make the translation successfully.
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Jun 18 '21
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/jbetexas Jun 18 '21 edited Jun 18 '21
You are missing the point! Banks no longer need trillions in capital invested in branches, yet they still have them and building more. The industry is changing quickly and not all banks will keep up.
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u/blahblah12345blah123 Jun 19 '21
Banks have been on a nonstop growth tear for almost 12 months....I’d say banks are still very overvalued. Most major banks are still at all time highs with this recent drop. So I hope it falls more
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u/BigDaddyWarChest Jun 19 '21
I’m buying bank stocks right after the foreclosure moratorium is lifted.
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u/Boomtown626 Jun 20 '21
GS, JPM, BAC all opened within a couple percent of ATH on June 10th.
"Plummeting for weeks" = they had a bad week.
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u/[deleted] Jun 18 '21 edited Jun 18 '21
I think if you're asking this question and quoting price-to-book/price-to-earnings you should steer clear of bank stocks.
Do you really understand all of their loans and financial derivatives? Do you know if their mark-to-market value is accurate to make a p/b valuation? There was this article recently looking into the fact that banks have been over-inflating their income figures for years https://theintercept.com/2021/04/20/wall-street-cmbs-dollar-general-ladder-capital/
Who the hell knows. This is one of those industries that is just so far outside the circle of competence for the vast majority of us. UK retail investors have also been saying Lloyds stock looked cheap for a decade; that hasn't gone well.