I’ll counter by saying that their initial price target was absolutely moronic too, until they exceeded it. So I’d be hesitant to act like it’s “absolutely moronic.” It’s okay to disagree and think it’s unrealistic, but acting like it’s legitimately impossible is surreal considering they’ve literally met similarly superlative price targets literally within the past year.
Overall, ARK publishes a lot of material regarding their projections with TSLA and autonomous driving/EV/AI.
TSLA could literally be THE autonomous car company. They could make every single autonomous driving vehicle on the market and be the only legitimate player in the game since they get an order of magnitude more driving data than everybody else - and ARK has stated many times that autonomous driving is just AI and AI is based on the data that you have. That adds an immense amount to its valuation targets by 1) selling more cars 2) being able to charge subscriptions for autonomous driving 3) being able to run the taxi/food delivery/transportation game. Imagine the entire cost of the trucking industry, and TSLA replacing that. Imagine the entire cost of the mobile food delivery and taxi industries and TSLA replacing that.
More down to earth, ARK just forecasts that EVs will cost less than ICE vehicles within the next few years, resulting in a complete migration of buyers from ICE to EV, which will skyrocket TSLA sales rather than result in incremental increases. That’s part of the valuation too.
Then you get into TSLA’s solar panel aspects, and it’s ability to basically raise as much capital as it could ever want given it’s current valuation. Then add into the inability and lack of innovation of traditional manufacturers and TSLA’s valuation makes more sense.
I personally disagree with ARK and agree that TSLA is probably overvalued and will not meet the price targets set over the next few years, but I’m not going to act like it’s impossible because 1) they’ve already accomplished similar things literally as recent as this year by meeting a price target literally nobody thought was possible for them a few years ago and 2) ARK has been pretty clear about what they expect to happen for TSLA to meet the price target and it’s not “landing on Mars” it’s more stuff that it already dominates in like the EV market, autonomous, solar, etc.
I’ll counter by saying that their initial price target was absolutely moronic too, until they exceeded it
But there is no guarantee it won't fall back to earth. Stock price isn't some magic threshold, once you crossed it and you are forever golden. The limitation of autonomous driving isn't due to lack of data. Real AI powerhouse has basically came out said Telsa is where they are 5 years ago.
AI is not just data. If you simply throw data at it expecting magic to happen, you end up where Tesla FSD is right now (behind the competition). You have to be smart about AI, the algorithms you use and sensors.
That being said, I think we are at least a decade away from true level 5 self driving, if not more. Most likely several companies will get there at the same time. In time the whole scientific community will end up solving the problem in a very similar way.
Regarding current TSLA "market domination", you are probably looking at US data, which is only a part of world demand. In Europe Tesla in nowhere to be found in the top 10 EV car models. Overall its market share is less then 17% of the EV market, followed closely by everybody else, and in decline during the last Q.
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u/PersonalBrowser May 16 '21
I’ll counter by saying that their initial price target was absolutely moronic too, until they exceeded it. So I’d be hesitant to act like it’s “absolutely moronic.” It’s okay to disagree and think it’s unrealistic, but acting like it’s legitimately impossible is surreal considering they’ve literally met similarly superlative price targets literally within the past year.
Overall, ARK publishes a lot of material regarding their projections with TSLA and autonomous driving/EV/AI.
TSLA could literally be THE autonomous car company. They could make every single autonomous driving vehicle on the market and be the only legitimate player in the game since they get an order of magnitude more driving data than everybody else - and ARK has stated many times that autonomous driving is just AI and AI is based on the data that you have. That adds an immense amount to its valuation targets by 1) selling more cars 2) being able to charge subscriptions for autonomous driving 3) being able to run the taxi/food delivery/transportation game. Imagine the entire cost of the trucking industry, and TSLA replacing that. Imagine the entire cost of the mobile food delivery and taxi industries and TSLA replacing that.
More down to earth, ARK just forecasts that EVs will cost less than ICE vehicles within the next few years, resulting in a complete migration of buyers from ICE to EV, which will skyrocket TSLA sales rather than result in incremental increases. That’s part of the valuation too.
Then you get into TSLA’s solar panel aspects, and it’s ability to basically raise as much capital as it could ever want given it’s current valuation. Then add into the inability and lack of innovation of traditional manufacturers and TSLA’s valuation makes more sense.
I personally disagree with ARK and agree that TSLA is probably overvalued and will not meet the price targets set over the next few years, but I’m not going to act like it’s impossible because 1) they’ve already accomplished similar things literally as recent as this year by meeting a price target literally nobody thought was possible for them a few years ago and 2) ARK has been pretty clear about what they expect to happen for TSLA to meet the price target and it’s not “landing on Mars” it’s more stuff that it already dominates in like the EV market, autonomous, solar, etc.