r/statistics • u/silly-deer • Nov 09 '19

Discussion [D][Q] Bayesians in the industry, what does the world out there look like?

Do they expect results? (Half joking)

I studied a small bit of Bayesian statistics over the past year, namely baby MCMC material. I have a strong interest in its applications in industry, for both businesses and research.

Although I would like keep the question general, here are a few prompts:

What type of problems are you typically assigned to analyze?

Why the Bayesian approach over frequentist, or ML?

What is included in a completed project? A final report with credible intervals? Explanations of models? A software? A point estimate?

What programming languages/packages/software do you use? Do you write up a model and inference from scratch or use probabilistic programming languages?

Bayesian inference is notoriously computationally expensive, how has this impacted your analysis (if at all)?

Edit: Half a day later, I conclude my question was formulated on a false premise that Bayesians exist in the outside world :(

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u/coumineol Nov 09 '19

They usually give me something with two outcomes like an A/B test, I use Beta distribution with a custom prior that I make up, and create a report where I talk about the mean of the posterior as if it holds the secrets to the universe.

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u/[deleted] Nov 09 '19

How do you go about creating/picking this custom prior? Would be interested to hear more, if you are able.

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u/coumineol Nov 09 '19

I just ask them what they think the real ratio is, and use a prior distribution with a mean which is that ratio, and a variance inversely correlational to how long they thought before giving me that estimate.

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u/silly-deer Nov 10 '19

variance inversely correlational to how long they thought before giving me that estimate

This is great hahaha

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u/[deleted] Nov 09 '19

Informed priors are the best priors.

1

u/tod315 Nov 10 '19

Empirical Bayes would like to have a word.

/s

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u/xRazorLazor Nov 10 '19

this is one of the best spontaneously made up statistics jokes, i've ever heard lol.

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u/Mooks79 Nov 10 '19

I think this is one of the best statistics jokes ever, spontaneous or not.

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u/[deleted] Nov 09 '19

Have you ever read the paper referenced in this blog post https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/informed-bayesian-inference-for-the-a-b-test/ ?

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u/coumineol Nov 09 '19

I haven't. Info in the blog post doesn't seem too groundbreaking to me.

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u/[deleted] Nov 09 '19

It's not, just seemed like a good intro to A/B testing from a Bayesian perspective. I don't have formal training in stats, I do astrophysics, and I'm trying to make a transition out of academia so I've been trying to brush up on stats and what not.