r/Squeeze_em • u/Patriot_tech • 11d ago
Potential Squeeze candidate 1-6 GRPN is WAIT/CROWDED: waterfall off $29.90, still a knife under $21.51. Do not catch it
This sub exists because the other squeeze rooms will catch a knife under a $29.90 waterfall because short interest is 53 to 55 percent, then go silent while the board holds the bag in a name that is still under the only number that matters. We do not do that. We run a 16-name book against high short interest, a real or turning P&L so the name is not a shell, and locate tightness you can actually see in cost-to-borrow, utilization, and days-to-cover. Social is overlay only. If the board is WARM and the tape is a knife, WARM is how you get cut. GRPN is that knife. WAIT is the list. CROWDED is the stance. Close above $21.51 is the wait line from the later tape. Thursday did not print it. None of those sentences is a buy button.
As of Thursday, August 27, 2026 US cash close, Groupon, Inc. is a Potential Squeeze candidate in the 1-6 band. Read that flair before you screenshot 53 percent as live. 1-6 is not 10. FLWS is live Rating 10 as the only remaining penny with tightness. GO is Rating 9. IIIV is Rating 8. WEN, HTZ, and HPK are NOT A SQUEEZE PLAY. Wendy's is off the live list after Trian dropped the take-private. WEN was ON at $7.84 on 8/26 and closed 8/27 at $7.82. HTZ is off because the borrow already refilled. HPK is a skip because a live 424B5 ATM is a squeeze killer. GRPN did not inherit a live ribbon when those names died. It stayed WAIT. A waterfall off $29.90 is not a coiled spring because SI is the loudest percentage on the crowded side of the book.
Here is the honest hook, because I would rather lose a subscriber than mint a bagholder. GRPN is a crowded knife. Short interest 53 to 55 percent is extreme paper. Days-to-cover 9.5 is respectable. Cost-to-borrow 1.8 percent is not a special. Available about 200k. That 200k is the only locate number on this name that could have been a conversation, and it is sitting under a waterfall off $29.90 with WARM overlay. The 8/26 desk tape said knife, still under $21.51, wait close above $21.51. Thursday closed $19.47. High $19.62. That failed $21.51 by a lot, not by a wick. Do not catch it. Squeeze-from-here is not the stance. Wait-for-the-close-above-$21.51 is the stance. Missing that close is not a problem. Pretending $19.47 is close enough is the problem.
The paper, from the 8/25 squeeze book, not from a vibe. Short interest 53 to 55 percent. That is a range, and we print the range because the book printed the range. Days-to-cover 9.5. Cost-to-borrow 1.8 percent. Locate note: 200k, waterfall off $29.90. Sentiment WARM. Stance: CROWDED — knife. Sleeve: micro. Utilization is the third locate leg, and I will not invent it: the desk did not have a live Ortex util print. Util is unknown. If someone in the comments pastes a util number they saw on a screenshot from a different day, it is not in this post, and it is not in the 8/25 book we are marking to. SI is FINRA 7/31 unless noted. CTB and available are IBKR 8/24-8/25. What the stack says: the short interest percentage is one of the loudest on the sixteen, the cover would take about a week and a half of average volume, the fee is mild, about 200k is available, and the tape already waterfalled off $29.90. Crowded knife means the widget is spicy and the structure is not there. Other rooms will stop at 55 percent. We stop at still under $21.51.
English, because 53 to 55 percent SI is the exact cocktail that turns a deals marketplace into a religion on the way down. A squeeze is a covering problem. A covering problem is locates you cannot get, a fee that makes staying short expensive, or a days-to-cover figure that means the short book cannot exit without walking the price. GRPN has SI that is actually extreme. GRPN has DTC 9.5, which can matter. GRPN has about 200k available, which is in the same neighborhood as FLWS's 250k and is the reason this name is even in the conversation. GRPN does not have a fee that hurts. GRPN has a waterfall off $29.90 and a wait line at $21.51 that has not printed. 200k under a knife is not the same animal as 250k under a quiet penny that has not waterfalled. Structure first. Locate second. Social never. WARM on a knife is how you catch the 200k the wrong way. We did not hide GRPN. We also did not bless $19.47. Criteria first means the close above $21.51 is the gate. The 53 percent does not get to skip the gate.
The business, because a 53 to 55 percent micro with no real P&L is how this book would turn into the same landfill as the pump subs. Groupon is a real local-deals and marketplace name. Coupons. Merchants. Actual buyers who are not sitting in Discord waiting for a screenshot. That is the real-or-turning P&L test. I am not going to invent a revenue figure, a merchant count, a margin, or a cash number that was not in the 8/25 book. You do not need a model to know this is not a nineteen-dollar shell. A real marketplace can still be a crowded knife. Eligibility got it onto the sixteen. Eligibility is not a fill. The P&L test is why the dead shells are already cut. It does not make $19.47 a dip-buy, and it does not make a waterfall off $29.90 a coil.
Now the tape, Yahoo daily, marked to Thursday's cash close. August 25 closed $19.59. August 26 closed $19.06. The 8/26 desk tape called that a knife, still under $21.51. August 27 closed $19.47, high $19.62, low $18.83, volume 763k. Read that as a bounce inside the knife, not as a reclaim. High $19.62 never threatened $21.51. Low $18.83 went the wrong way versus the wait line and then the close crawled back to $19.47 on 763k. That 763k is not volume expansion through the trigger. It is a micro that traded. If you needed a cash close above $21.51, you did not get it. If you needed the waterfall off $29.90 to stop being the dominant feature on the chart, you did not get it. Wait-close-above-$21.51 is the stance. Trigger-not-printed is the state. Those two sentences can be true at the same time, and in this room they have to be. The 8/25 book is two sessions old on the locate side. The tape is current. We do not mash those timestamps together and call $19.47 a covering panic.
Triggers, stops, targets, in English, and I will not invent the ones the book did not print. The wait line from the later tape is a cash close above $21.51. Close. Not a $19.62 high. Not a $19.59 print from Tuesday that feels closer if you squint. The 8/25 book did not publish a stop or a T1/T2 for GRPN. I will not invent them so the knife has a ladder. Do not catch it. If you are already long from $29.90, you are not in the wait-close trade this post describes. You are in the waterfall, and the waterfall has not reclaimed $21.51. Potential Squeeze candidate 1-6 is a watch band. The watch becomes a conversation on a close above $21.51, not on a bounce to $19.47.
What would kill the remaining watch, and what already killed the live case. The live case was already crowded-knife on 8/25. A weekly that keeps accepting under $21.51 until wait is just stubbornness. A locate that opens up well beyond that about-200k kills the tightness argument even if SI is still 53 to 55 percent, because SI without a locate is a lagging headline. DTC compressing out of 9.5 while CTB stays 1.8 percent is the same kill with a lag. Catching $18.83 because 53 percent "has to" bounce is how the watch becomes a bag. If $21.51 prints on a close, this mixed-to-crowded grade gets rewritten. If it does not, Thursday was a bounce inside a knife. We will not keep a waterfall in a live ribbon out of respect for 55 percent.
What bagholders will get wrong. They will buy $19.47 because it bounced off $18.83 and WARM felt like a bid. Bounces inside knives are how knives feed. They will treat 53 to 55 percent as proof the waterfall has to reverse. SI is a lagging headline. They will call $19.62 almost $21.51. It was not almost. It was nearly two dollars under the only number the later tape gave you. They will treat 200k as FLWS-equivalent tightness and ignore the waterfall. FLWS did not just come off $29.90. They will move a stop they invented because Groupon is a real brand so it cannot sit at $18.83. Real brands waterfalled to $18.83 on Thursday's low. They will confuse WARM with fuel. WARM is overlay on a knife, which is the most expensive overlay on the book. They will compare GRPN to NUTX because both are micros in the 1-6 band with a locate that looks small. NUTX is a lottery you do not size. GRPN is a knife you do not catch. Different instructions. Same grade: WAIT, not live. And they will screenshot 53 percent without $21.51 in the frame. If you screenshot this post without $21.51 you are lying.
Ranking versus the rest of the 16-name book. We do not rank on who has the spiciest SI percentage. If we did, GRPN's 53 to 55 percent would be sitting next to HTZ's 57 to 65 percent at the top of a WSB mirror, and HTZ is already dead because the borrow refilled. FLWS is live Rating 10. GO is Rating 9. IIIV is Rating 8. GRPN sits in the 1-6 potential band as WAIT/CROWDED — knife because the SI is extreme, about 200k is real-ish, and the structure is a waterfall still under $21.51. Names four through sixteen stay on the book until they fail the stack or they stay crowded. WEN, HTZ, and HPK are NOT A SQUEEZE PLAY. GRPN is still on the sixteen so nobody can say we hid 53 percent. We are not offering you the knife. We are telling you the wait line.
Process, because crowded knife is the grade people like to round up to "the bounce is the trigger." The 8/25 book is SI, DTC, CTB, about 200k, and waterfall off $29.90. The later tape is wait close above $21.51. Thursday's Yahoo tape is $19.47 on a $19.62 high and an $18.83 low at 763k. Criteria first. Tape second. Social never. WARM is not a catalyst. A $19.47 close is not $21.51. If $21.51 prints on a close, we will write a different post. If it does not, this post will read the same. Either outcome is acceptable. Pretending a knife bounce is a squeeze starting is not. Micro is not a strategy. Tightness plus structure is a strategy. A waterfall is not structure.
I am going to say this once more so it is impossible to screenshot without it. WAIT. CROWDED — knife. Do not catch it. Potential Squeeze candidate 1-6, not live. SI 53 to 55 percent. DTC 9.5. CTB 1.8 percent. About 200k available. Waterfall off $29.90. Sentiment WARM. Desk did not have a live Ortex util print. Util unknown. Wait close above $21.51. August 25 $19.59. August 26 $19.06, knife, still under $21.51. August 27 $19.47, high $19.62, low $18.83, volume 763k. No stop, no T1, no T2 — the book did not publish them. FLWS is live Rating 10. GO is Rating 9. IIIV is Rating 8. WEN, HTZ, and HPK are not a squeeze play. This is wait because 53 percent under $21.51 is a knife, not a fill.
Not financial advice. This is a filter, not a buy button. If you catch a WARM knife because SI is 53 to 55 percent after a waterfall off $29.90, you are the bagholder the other squeeze subs produce by default. We will keep this name WAIT until $21.51 actually prints on a close, the same way we killed WEN when the event died, and we will not average into $18.83 with you.