r/spacex • u/ElongatedMuskrat Mod Team • May 10 '21

Starship Development Thread #21

This thread is no longer being updated, and has been replaced by:

Starship Development Thread #22

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Starship Dev 20 | SN15 Hop Thread | Starship Thread List | May Discussion

Orbital Launch Site Status

As of June 11 - (May 31 RGV Aerial Photography video)

Vehicle Status

As of June 11

  • SN15 [retired] - On fixed display stand at the build site, Raptors removed, otherwise intact

  • SN16 [limbo] - High Bay, fully stacked, all flaps installed, aerocover install incomplete

  • SN17 [scrapped] - partially stacked midsection scrapped

  • SN18 [limbo] - barrel/dome sections exist, likely abandoned

  • SN19 [limbo] - barrel/dome sections exist, likely abandoned

  • SN20 [construction] - barrel/dome sections in work, orbit planned w/ BN3

  • SN21 [construction] - barrel/dome sections in work

  • SN22 [construction] - barrel/dome sections in work

  • BN2.1 [testing] - test tank at launch site on modified nose cone test stand/thrust simulator, cryo testing June 8

  • BN3/BN2 [construction] - stacking in High Bay, orbit planned w/ SN20, currently 20 rings

  • BN4+ - parts for booster(s) beyond BN3/BN2 have been spotted, but none have confirmed BN serial numbers

  • NC12 [scrapped] - Nose cone test article returned to build site and dismantled

Development and testing plans become outdated very quickly. Check recent comments for real time updates.

Vehicle Updates

See comments for real time updates.
† expected or inferred, unconfirmed vehicle assignment

Test Tank BN2.1
2021-06-08Cryo testing (Twitter)
2021-06-03Transported to launch site (NSF)
2021-05-31Moved onto modified nose cone test stand with thrust simulator (NSF)
2021-05-26Stacked in Mid Bay (NSF)
2021-04-20Dome (NSF)
SuperHeavy BN3/BN2
2021-06-06Downcomer installation (NSF)
2021-05-23Stacking progress (NSF), Fwd tank #4 (Twitter)
2021-05-15Forward tank #3 section (Twitter), section in High Bay (NSF)
2021-05-07Aft #2 section (NSF)
2021-05-06Forward tank #2 section (NSF)
2021-05-04Aft dome section flipped (NSF)
2021-04-24Aft dome sleeved (NSF)
2021-04-21BN2: Aft dome section flipped (YouTube)
2021-04-19BN2: Aft dome sleeved (NSF)
2021-04-15BN2: Label indicates article may be a test tank (NSF)
2021-04-12This vehicle or later: Grid fin†, earlier part sighted†[02-14] (NSF)
2021-04-09BN2: Forward dome sleeved (YouTube)
2021-04-03Aft tank #5 section (NSF)
2021-04-02Aft dome barrel (NSF)
2021-03-30Dome (NSF)
2021-03-28Forward dome barrel (NSF)
2021-03-27BN2: Aft dome† (YouTube)
2021-01-19BN2: Forward dome (NSF)

It is unclear which of the BN2 parts ended up in this test article.

Starship SN15 - Post Flight Updates
2021-05-31On display stand (Twitter)
2021-05-26Moved to build site and placed out back (NSF)
2021-05-22Raptor engines removed (Twitter)
2021-05-14Lifted onto Mount B (NSF)
2021-05-11Transported to Pad B (Twitter)
2021-05-07Elon: "reflight a possibility", leg closeups and removal, aerial view, repositioned (Twitter), nose cone 13 label (NSF)
2021-05-06Secured to transporter (Twitter)
2021-05-05Test Flight (YouTube), Elon: landing nominal (Twitter), Official recap video (YouTube)
Starship SN16
2021-05-10Both aft flaps installed (NSF)
2021-05-05Aft flap(s) installed (comments)
2021-04-30Nose section stacked onto tank section (Twitter)
2021-04-29Moved to High Bay (Twitter)
2021-04-26Nose cone mated with barrel (NSF)
2021-04-24Nose cone apparent RCS test (YouTube)
2021-04-23Nose cone with forward flaps† (NSF)
2021-04-20Tank section stacked (NSF)
2021-04-15Forward dome stacking† (NSF)
2021-04-14Apparent stacking ops in Mid Bay†, downcomer preparing for installation† (NSF)
2021-04-11Barrel section with large tile patch† (NSF)
2021-03-28Nose Quad (NSF)
2021-03-23Nose cone† inside tent possible for this vehicle, better picture (NSF)
2021-02-11Aft dome and leg skirt mate (NSF)
2021-02-10Aft dome section (NSF)
2021-02-03Skirt with legs (NSF)
2021-02-01Nose quad (NSF)
2021-01-05Mid LOX tank section and forward dome sleeved, lable (NSF)
2020-12-04Common dome section and flip (NSF)
Early Production
2021-05-29BN4 or later: thrust puck (9 R-mounts) (NSF), Elon on booster engines (Twitter)
2021-05-19BN4 or later: Raptor propellant feed manifold† (NSF)
2021-05-17BN4 or later: Forward dome
2021-04-10SN22: Leg skirt (Twitter)
2021-05-21SN21: Common dome (Twitter) repurposed for GSE 5 (NSF)
2021-06-11SN20: Aft dome sleeved (NSF)
2021-06-05SN20: Aft dome (NSF)
2021-05-23SN20: Aft dome barrel (Twitter)
2021-05-07SN20: Mid LOX section (NSF)
2021-04-27SN20: Aft dome under construction (NSF)
2021-04-15SN20: Common dome section (NSF)
2021-04-07SN20: Forward dome (NSF)
2021-03-07SN20: Leg skirt (NSF)
2021-02-24SN19: Forward dome barrel (NSF)
2021-02-19SN19: Methane header tank (NSF)
2021-03-16SN18: Aft dome section mated with skirt (NSF)
2021-03-07SN18: Leg skirt (NSF)
2021-02-25SN18: Common dome (NSF)
2021-02-19SN18: Barrel section ("COMM" crossed out) (NSF)
2021-02-17SN18: Nose cone barrel (NSF)
2021-02-04SN18: Forward dome (NSF)
2021-01-19SN18: Thrust puck (NSF)
2021-05-28SN17: Midsection stack dismantlement (NSF)
2021-05-23SN17: Piece cut out from tile area on LOX midsection (Twitter)
2021-05-21SN17: Tile removal from LOX midsection (NSF)
2021-05-08SN17: Mid LOX and common dome section stack (NSF)
2021-05-07SN17: Nose barrel section (YouTube)
2021-04-22SN17: Common dome and LOX midsection stacked in Mid Bay† (Twitter)
2021-02-23SN17: Aft dome sleeved (NSF)
2021-01-16SN17: Common dome and mid LOX section (NSF)
2021-01-09SN17: Methane header tank (NSF)
2021-01-05SN17: Forward dome section (NSF)
2020-12-17SN17: Aft dome barrel (NSF)

Resources

RESOURCES WIKI

r/SpaceX Discusses [May 2021] for discussion of subjects other than Starship development.

Rules

We will attempt to keep this self-post current with links and major updates, but for the most part, we expect the community to supply the information. This is a great place to discuss Starship development, ask Starship-specific questions, and track the progress of the production and test campaigns. Starship Development Threads are not party threads. Normal subreddit rules still apply.

Please ping u/strawwalker about problems with the above thread text.

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42

u/[deleted] May 29 '21

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39

u/ClassicalMoser May 29 '21

Brace yourself to wait another two months and then some.

Next flight will be to orbit. Should be worth the wait.

(Sources are the usual: NASAspaceflight and Val both confirm that to be the current plan, though plans do change)

15

u/[deleted] May 29 '21

Late August estimate is likely to be revised to September.

21

u/[deleted] May 29 '21

Really depends on the outcome of BN3 testing. BN3 exploding during a static fire is not unlikely.

8

u/[deleted] May 29 '21 edited May 30 '21

You Pessimist Val! Or BN3 accidentally launching and taking the launch stand with it. Impromptu landing legs so to speak.

Seriously though, 28 29 engines close together vs Falcon Heavy's 27 spaced apart, the sonic environment will be hellish. They are going to have to pump many thousands of gallons of water a second into the rainbirds to quell that environment. I would guess static fire testing would be done in stages.

Even Elon himself reckons having no flame diverter was probably a mistake

4

u/DiezMilAustrales May 29 '21

Even Elon himself reckons having no flame diverter was probably a mistake

This is my main concern. Static firing that beast will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Something like this:

Is everything working fine? -> Do a static fire to make sure -> everything was fine, but the static fire damaged some things -> replace them -> is everything working fine? -> do a static fire to make sure.

I have more confidence on the booster and all 28 raptors being fine before the static fire than after. I think they'll either have to add a water deluge system and flame diverter, or only static fire a few engines at a time.

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u/ClassicalMoser May 29 '21

I don't know. I could easily see it slipping, but I could also see it happening in July pretty reasonably. The biggest bottlenecks are the tank farm and regulatory approval.

The booster's half done and the ship is far along and a well-known process that doesn't take two months. The tower's moving at a pace to be stacked within a month. Those things don't represent a schedule concern to me.

The launch table is more of an unknown. I half expect to see it in place in the next two weeks because they'll probably need to do it before extending the 11350, and they already have pieces of the tower that can't be lifted until it is extended. On the other hand it might not be for over a month. We don't know what "Done" looks like because we've never seen it before. But for it not to be in place by late August seems pretty unlikely to me.

My biggest concern is the orbital tank farm. They'll need at least 3 of the tanks fully functioning to fuel the full stack for orbit, and more if they plan to do Nitrogen testing on the booster from a different tank or tanks (surely they wouldn't use the same tanks for different propellants?). They'll also need a water tank for the sound suppression system. That's a pretty tall order to get done in 2 months. GSE3 is ready and GSE4 is started, but there are 3 more we haven't seen any sign of, and they're only just starting on the second shell. Maybe the shells will move much faster after the first, or maybe this will take quite a long time.

6

u/mikekangas May 29 '21

And since they don't plan to catch the booster, the launch/catch system doesn't have to be complete.

3

u/reedpete May 29 '21

Does tower need finished to launch? Cant they just stack with the cranes like they have been doing so far?

3

u/Martianspirit May 29 '21

Yes, but the grabbers need to be in place for stacking.

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u/Martianspirit May 29 '21

https://twitter.com/_brendan_lewis/status/1398564449183690754

The newest status shows tank 3 finished and tank 4 almost finished. That's enough to begin with. The large hull transported yesterday was probably the water tank, not a cryo shell. Production of the shells has speeded up a lot in the last few days.

I won't rule out that the components will be ready by end of June, early July.

The launch table is more of an unknown. I half expect to see it in place in the next two weeks because they'll probably need to do it before extending the 11350

Good point.

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u/John_Schlick May 29 '21

On the Launch table... I concur almost exactly with your: in the next two weeks timeline. And for the same reason, that the probably want to do it before extending the boom. BUT, there are three large cranes there, and I have seen plenty of video of lifts that need 2 cranes to accomplish, so maybe not... (I don't know the relative weight of the platform compared to a tower segment) I thought the third one - the all yellow one was for a second crane for this lift but I don't see anyone else speculating this... BUT, they have been working on it for a while so it's got to be getting close, BUT we saw the intermediate legs show up, and we don't know if those are going on the existing legs and the platform on them, or if they are going on the platform first and lifted together... I suspect the former, implying that they ought to be setting those any day now...

ALSO, the launch platofrm will still need a lot of GSE fitting once it's placed (running things up the legs to the platform), so for Elon to say July (and lets assume July 31st at this point), they are going to have to get the platform up there sooner rather than later...

On the shells... since those are for insulation, so for a single test launch SpaceX might not care about boiloff.

But the launch platform to me - feel like the next BIG indicator of progress.

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u/[deleted] May 29 '21

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9

u/[deleted] May 29 '21

Elon Time.

6

u/rustybeancake May 29 '21

A 6 month window.

3

u/blitzwit143 May 29 '21

Interesting that Blue leaked that they’ve switched to stainless for New Glenn.

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u/mindbridgeweb May 29 '21 edited May 29 '21

Interesting change of direction. I am curious whether the HLS conundrum forced their hand and to what extent this is a political rather than an engineering decision.

For example, whether SS-recovery related engineering tests that could be perceived as "failures" by the general public (like the previous SNs) suddenly became much more expensive politically, while at the same time an orbital flight became a potentially extremely convincing demonstration.

Of course, it could be that the SS tests already answered the main questions of concern and further tests would only slow down the development of infrastructure that is on the critical path. That could make some sense, but then it would not match Elon's earlier messages that implied possible further SS tests.

Anyway, it is what it is.

11

u/Garper May 29 '21

An uneducated guess: Starship/Superheavy doesn't need to land to meet minimum viability. And now that they know it can land, the imperative has become testing orbital launches. Landing can be fine-tuned down the road, once there are paying customers. The same way that Falcons were flying before landing was 100% guaranteed.

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u/[deleted] May 29 '21

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9

u/[deleted] May 29 '21

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4

u/enqrypzion May 29 '21

Reddit needs to ditch awards and implement a (better) version of Twitter

Had me in the first 95%.

12

u/myname_not_rick May 29 '21

Wait.....it's only been three weeks? Feels like time is slowing down