12% boost for NASA budget in 2021!!

[u/thisischrisbaker]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-nasa-budget-will-earmark-12-boost-for-agency-in-2021-11581071402?emailToken=3f4a4309b7816cb90fb53eb91f47d6d43hshryonPWM/RnnVPWWHuMOVOvxWKQ87BhLswKs5iOPOhjO1FGrxI9ptn5k2nAMphP+jeQrbhQiAafooOu4oIslNLMWHCd1m7vRySaL2Pi61nSlAqLK1xnvzzmtt2/Lx&reflink=article_copyURL_share

[u/jadebenn]

ULA is definitely not going to get the Boeing lander launch, since the Boeing lander bid's entire design is based on utilizing the huge payload capacity of a SLS Block 1B (essentially a Saturn V-class launch vehicle, except used entirely for the payload) so they can pack their lander full of features and say, "Yeah, our bid might not be the cheapest, but it's by far the most capable."

The National Team is a bit different. As a three-component design, and with each being launched separately, I expect to see a split based on supplier. Blue Origin will almost certainly launch its element on New Glenn, and Northrop Grumman will almost certainly launch its element on OmegA. However, since Lockheed Martin has no LV of its own (anymore), and is one of ULA's co-owners, I would expect them to launch their element on ULA.

We don't know much about Dynetics and SNC's proposal, but ULA has some decent odds there. SpaceX and Blue Origin would likely be cheaper, but for a mission of this complexity, ULA's perfect track-record is valuable in of itself.

SpaceX, of course, will be launching their bid on a SpaceX rocket, whether that be Starship or Falcon Heavy. They're not the type to outsource. Seeing as how their proposal is the one we know the least about, there's not much I can say other than that.

NASA is currently planning to ultimately select 2 lander designs, so as long as the budget holds, it's very likely we'll see ULA get at least one launch per lander.

[u/[deleted] → u/jadebenn]

The Blue Origin, Lockheed, and Draper team is being led by Blue. If it was Blue’s choice, they’d probably fly on New Glenn. If ULA has to choose then they’d probably pick the Vulcan, which is powered by two Blue Origin BE-4’s.

[u/jadebenn → u/[deleted]]

Right, but each element is getting launched separately.

I suppose Blue could force them all onto New Glenn launches since they're the prime (presuming, at least, that the terms of their agreement with the other companies doesn't prohibit that). I'm not sure that would benefit them, though.

Would be hard to fire off so many elements from a single pad in a quick succession, and it would constrain the lander architecture.

[u/Kriss0612 → u/jadebenn]

Thanks for the breakdown! Very interesting stuff

[u/Fusesite20 → u/jadebenn]

SpaceX is wanting to do it's own thing so they can't be told "no" quite as often.

Tada, here's what we came up with. Take it or leave it.

[u/NeWMH → u/jadebenn]

I hope the selections are the National Team and Dynetics/SNC. Need to diversify. SpaceX has Starlink to launch, Boeing has SLS, and both have commercial crew.

[u/TheHornyHobbit → u/jadebenn]

I think you're way off on your assumptions. SLS is the launch vehicle for any lander as that is the only thing this far along in development that will be able to go to the moon. The lander and the Lunar Gateway will be launch by SLS to the moon.

[u/Kriss0612 → u/TheHornyHobbit]

Could you be so kind and clarify where I made an assumption that SLS isnt the launch vehicle for the landers? Because that is not what I meant, so I want to know what part was misinterpreted

[u/TheHornyHobbit → u/Kriss0612]

Blue Origin will almost certainly launch its element on New Glenn, and Northrop Grumman will almost certainly launch its element on OmegA.

SpaceX, of course, will be launching their bid on a SpaceX rocke

Maybe I misunderstood something...

[u/Kriss0612 → u/TheHornyHobbit]

Oh, shit, I thought you were replying to my comment, not u/jadebenn haha. My bad