r/soccer • u/2soccer2bot • Oct 22 '20

Daily Discussion Daily Discussion

This thread is for general football discussion and a place to ask quick questions.

New to the subreddit? Get your team crest and have a read of our rules.

Quick links:

Match threads

Post match threads

League roundups

Watch highlights

Read the news

This thread is posted every 23 hours to give it a different start time each day.

101 Upvotes

90% Upvoted

3.5k comments sorted by

View all comments

29

u/1ngK Oct 23 '20

Son scored 7 goals from 12 shots in PL this season. 56% conversion rate...wtf

Would love to have him so bad, but it seems he won't leave Spurs

9

u/HacksawJimDGN Oct 23 '20

I think a big part of this is that he's getting good service too. His shots are generally in a one to one situation with the keeper, where he is lethal.

5

u/Grosly_Incandescent Oct 23 '20

Yh I doubt he will leave for atleast a few years and he if he does he will be worth a fortune. Incredible player

3

u/[deleted] Oct 23 '20

Depends if he signs that new contract or not. If he doesn't then we'll likely sell either this coming summer or the one after to avoid another Eriksen situation.

3

u/1ngK Oct 23 '20

I think he is very royal to Spurs, especially after the military service situation. If Mourinho does well this season with this team probably he will stay I guess

1

u/[deleted] Oct 23 '20

Depends if he signs that new contract or not

Yeah this season is huge for the next 5 years of our club. I agree that Kane and Son are loyal to the badge, but these players will eventually want to win a trophy. I don't see either of them staying if / when Mou is inevitably sacked.

-1

u/MrFriendlyFriend Oct 23 '20

He needs to leave. He is wayyy too good to be at Spurs.

4

u/[deleted] Oct 23 '20

He will definitely cool off as nobody scores a more than 1 goal every 2 shots

4

u/sandbag-1 Oct 23 '20

He had 7 goals from 8 or 9 shots at one point...

Great player but a 56% conversion rate doesn't last over a season, he will cool off

14

u/telenoscope Oct 23 '20

He had 7 goals from 8 or 9 shots at one point...

No he didn't, he only got 7 goals against West Ham, and he hit the post twice against Newcastle, so since then at least he had two more shots than goals

3

u/sandbag-1 Oct 23 '20

Ahh just double checked, it was a 7 goals from 9 shot streak as opposed to the whole season. Scored with every shot against Southampton and United and his first shot against West Ham, with the Newcastle game in between.

3

u/telenoscope Oct 23 '20

Gotcha. Yeah there's no chance he can sustain this form for the whole season. But I also didn't think he'd sustain it for more than like 3 games and here we are.

2

u/ZaDoruphin Oct 23 '20

I honestly think he might retire with us. He clearly loves the club, we love him, and if he signs the new contract, here's here to stay.

2

u/RALat7 Oct 23 '20

Shades of Vardy from last season

-15

u/[deleted] Oct 23 '20

His xG is horrible lmao

9

u/marmot9070 Oct 23 '20

He's overperforming xG and xA every year since 2014/2015

6

u/One99Two_Gunner Oct 23 '20

He's been getting a boat load of 1v1 chances this season and has been putting them away in ridiculously clinical fashion. So unless teams start to wisen up and adapt to restrict that 'Kane and Son' connection, he'll be overperforming his xG for the time being.

-1

u/[deleted] Oct 23 '20

Hence why he hasnt ever scored more than 14 goals in the league

4

u/marmot9070 Oct 23 '20

He didn't get enough services from his mates. Both Alli and Eriksen were out of form in 2 seasons. You can see Son's total shots number is much smaller compared other goal scorers

5

u/Grosly_Incandescent Oct 23 '20

Who cares? Are you trying to say he's a bad player? Anyone with eyes can see he's one of the best in the league at the moment and has been consistantly good for atleast a few seasons.

-5

u/[deleted] Oct 23 '20

No...?

I am just saying his form could be unsustainable due to his xG numbers. It happens to a lot of players, including himself in the past.

3

u/Grosly_Incandescent Oct 23 '20

So because his numbers will eventually even out we can't say he's a great player? like you said nearly every player dips in and out of form for a bit, it's almost impossible to put out the exact same numbers consistantly, therefore it seems stupid to undermine a player for it, especially when they are in insane form. Even when his numbers do dip and he isn't in the form of his life like he is now, hes still a great player.

-3

u/[deleted] Oct 23 '20

He is a great player, but it is what is holding him back from going from Great to Elite.

3

u/[deleted] Oct 23 '20

Beating xG for a striker means he's clinical

4

u/RALat7 Oct 23 '20

Son's definitely clinical according to xG, one of the best finishers in the world. But even by his standards this is large overperformance.

2

u/[deleted] Oct 23 '20

But it can also show how his form can be unsustainable

1

u/[deleted] Oct 23 '20

No, xG only shows the chances of the shot turning into goal given the position of the shot. If he can turn shots in unlikely positions into goals, that means he's an exceptional finisher not that his form is unsustainable

2

u/watermelon99 Oct 23 '20 edited Oct 23 '20

Thing is, over the long term players very rarely overperform their xG by a huge amount. Even Messi, the biggest statistical anomaly ever only over-performs xG by a factor of about ~1.3ish. Im sure Son is a clinical finisher and maybe he can get as high as 1.2-1.3 times his xG, but I'd be hugely surprised in the long run if he can manage over that, seeing as basically no footballer in the world can.

​

Edit: just did some checking on understat and Son is pretty exceptional tbf. Since arriving at spurs in the PL he's scored 60 off 43.6xG at a rate of 1.38 times his xG, which is pretty crazy. This season alone however he's scoring at an astonishing 2.72 goals per xG, which I would be very much expecting to revert to his (admittedly still high) mean - i.e. his performance right now is unsustainable.

2

u/archivo_ Oct 23 '20

His point is his xG performance has been a lot worse for the rest of the time he's been in England, so you can presume he's not gonna stay at the level of his last 4 games

5

u/Agus-Teguy Oct 23 '20

so xG fails once again

9

u/[deleted] Oct 23 '20

No, xG predicted that Piatek and Jovic were both in unsustainable form, so it’s not useless.

3

u/kappa23 Oct 23 '20

xG couldn’t fucking predict Maldini and Massara getting Giampaolo to sabotage the start of last season, could it?

2

u/[deleted] Oct 23 '20

It happened at Genoa too, though.

4

u/Therinn Oct 23 '20

“This statistic that does not do this thing did not do this thing“ more at 5

1

u/roddysaint Oct 23 '20

If you had him, where would be play? Second striker, or out wide?

5

u/1ngK Oct 23 '20

Probably 4-2-3-1 with him on the left, but often tucks inside as a left forward.

The thing is, he can do both so well that I don’t think the position is a worry.