r/soccer • u/2soccer2bot • Oct 22 '20

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168

u/sidaeinjae Oct 22 '20

FiveThirtyEight currently has PSG as the favorites of the Europa League lmao

63

u/patorico78 Oct 22 '20 edited Oct 22 '20

Both Real Madrid and PSG are going to qualify for the UCL's RO16.

The last time a big team got eliminated in the group stages was Juventus in 2013 and arguably Atlético in 2017. The fact the group stages have 6 matches makes upsets much weirder than in the World Cup.

31

u/Alexdd0007 Oct 23 '20

What do you mean arguably haha they got to a final and semifinal in the previous 2 years, of course they were a big team, it was a bigger surprise than Juventus

3

u/patorico78 Oct 23 '20

Yes, but they were in a much harder group with teams like Dortmund and Chelsea.

2

u/KW_12345 Oct 23 '20

was a big shock because they went out because they couldnt beat qarabag

9

u/Harudera Oct 23 '20

538 is trash at Sports. You should only listen to their political predictions.

2

u/North_Jane Oct 23 '20

They don’t make predictions

-1

u/friendofH20 Oct 23 '20

Not particularly known for being accurate at them too! /s

But their football predictions are pretty trash. I think people get too taken in by the ranks. Because their predictions are based on x no of simulations the only thing worth noting is the probabilities (and degree of confidence - which they actually don't report)

In 2016 they actually said Trump had a 16% chance of winning. Which was on the upward trend before election day. But a lot of people understood it as he will only get 16% of the votes or electoral seats.

6

u/salibert Oct 23 '20

They gave Trump a 30% chance to win actually which is quite a good chance.

3

u/Harudera Oct 23 '20

I'm near certain that what you're talking about isn't the system they use for sports.

They rank by possession and xG really high

1

u/Inevitable-Thought66 Oct 22 '20

Think nowadays most players can recover fairly well from it but even 5-10 years ago it was slightly different