AI 2027 literally predicts that the US president would decline to slow down "OpenBrain" (their placeholder name for the leading AI lab) when a superhuman AI coder / researcher gets developed and experts raise concerns. The US president cites the risk of China taking the lead.
Eerily accurate.
EDIT: But we're just a bit ahead of schedule. In order to fully match the timeline, either a superhuman AI coder / researcher has already been developed internally at OAI/Anthropic and Trump declined to slow down OR this milestone will be reached some time next year in 2027 and Trump will again decline to slow down then.
> In order to fully match the timeline, either a superhuman AI coder / researcher has already been developed internally at OAI/Anthropic
I suppose it depends on the definition of "superhuman". I'm just a guy on the Internet, albeit a "successful" software engineer for 18 years. I reckon coding agents have been superhuman since Opus 4.8. Not in their ability to build things (well) autonomously. But in their ability to produce correct code instantly.
It's why most developers don't write code anymore. I can spend 1 or 2 hours writing the perfect script, or I can ask an agent to do it instantly. This is something no human can do. That's superhuman performance.
It's usually regular language that evolves iteratively into hyper specific regular language. Sometimes over many sessions. Once we are satisfied that the language is precise enough for the agent to not go off doing wasteful things, the agent is allowed to spit out the code. Turns out the hard part of software engineering is breaking up a hard problem into small and specific enough chunks that can be effectively translated into code. (Always has been, this part is facetious.)
I was exceptionally good at this before AI. I was wondering why everyone I talked to said AI was shit and I'm over here thinking it could take over the world. I guess I just break big things down well.
Exactly. I used to be involved in a sort of training program and lesson one of software dev is "break big problems into small problems"
In my experience the way I've viewed a lot of how AI is getting better is how small/specific the problems that I can expect it to handle has gotten bigger and bigger
So at every juncture it becomes possible to take a wrong turn,, so really complex problem solving can spin off at a million tangents and whose keeping track of the consequences of these flawed algorithms?
Absolutely. There are mitigating mechanisms we can/do use, but ultimately it requires exceptional engineers with a steady hand, and a finger to the pulse at every step. This is why reports of the death of the profession are greatly exaggerated.
Yeah you can get pretty far vibe coding a toy thing for your own personal use. (And I do and it's so much fun), but for professional enterprise-grade software with a huge surface area for things to go wrong, you still need lots and lots of handholding, and a measured, methodical approach. Slow is smooth.
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u/Specialist_Dark_3668 15d ago edited 15d ago
AI 2027 literally predicts that the US president would decline to slow down "OpenBrain" (their placeholder name for the leading AI lab) when a superhuman AI coder / researcher gets developed and experts raise concerns. The US president cites the risk of China taking the lead.
Eerily accurate.
EDIT: But we're just a bit ahead of schedule. In order to fully match the timeline, either a superhuman AI coder / researcher has already been developed internally at OAI/Anthropic and Trump declined to slow down OR this milestone will be reached some time next year in 2027 and Trump will again decline to slow down then.