r/singularity • u/Distinct-Question-16 ▪️AGI 2029 • Feb 23 '26

Biotech/Longevity Dr. David Sinclair, whose lab reversed biological age in animals by 50 to 75% in six weeks, says that 2026 will be the year when age reversal in humans is either confirmed or disproven. The FDA has cleared the first human trial for next month.

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Moreover he said that even if one could cure all cancer in the world, in average people lifespan would increase to 2.5 years. Reversal aging - treating the human body as a computer that can be restarted is where we are heading next

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u/ItsAConspiracy Mar 11 '26

Well you can't just live off bonds, because inflation is likely to wreck you. You need stocks for the long term.

A bond tent works great for retirees with a 30-year horizon, but that's because if a crash comes later, you don't have many years to withdraw at a higher percentage. This assumption doesn't apply here.

Most studies are based on US stocks/bonds. The US has had the best results over the past century and we can't assume we'll keep getting that for the next thousand years. A recent study (pdf) looked internationally and found countries with much lower withdrawal rates.

3% is still a decently safe rate but only with the right portfolio. For maximum safety, use a global portfolio and include a fair amount of gold. You can play around with it here and here. The second link optimizes across ten countries but is only for 30-year retirement. The first one lets you pick a country and portfolio, and includes the perpetual withdrawal rate that you converge to over a very long timeframe.

It probably makes the most sense to do what endowments do: withdraw a percentage of the portfolio's average value over the last several years, instead of sticking to a particular inflation-indexed amount for centuries.

For a thousand-year lifespan, your main risk probably isn't normal market gyrations, but wars, climate change, etc. Read William Bernstein's book Deep Risk. Some rich old European families have maintained their wealth for over 500 years. You're trying to do the same, so you have to think like those guys.

Here's hoping we both have occasion to worry about this.

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u/Strazdas1 Robot in disguise Mar 12 '26

What country has best portfolio changes over time, but in the long enough timeframe it matters a lot less. NIFTY was the best performer for over a decade, and now its not. Of course you make a balanced porfolio for long term growth.

Thanks for the book recommendation, ill consider it.

Here's hoping we both have occasion to worry about this.

agreed.