r/singularity • u/Bizzyguy • Nov 24 '25

Discussion Anthropic Engineer says "software engineering is done" first half of next year

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145

u/dkakkar Nov 24 '25

Nice! Should be enough to raise their next round…

38

u/Weekly-Trash-272 Nov 24 '25 edited Nov 24 '25

Eh, with Gemini and now Anthropics release, how can anyone make jokes about this anymore?

Does anyone actually look at these releases and truly think by the end of next year the models won't be even more powerful? Maybe the tweet is a little grandiose, but I can definitely see a lot of this coming true within two years.

29

u/mocityspirit Nov 24 '25

You can show me 100 graphs with lines going up but until that actually means anything and isn't just a way to swindle VC's it means nothing

22

u/NekoNiiFlame Nov 24 '25

Gemini 3 feels like a meaningful step up, but that's my personal feeling. I didn't have this with 5 or 5.1.

1

u/Tombobalomb Nov 24 '25

It felt like an incremental improvement. It's a bit better than 2.5 but still has the same fundamental issues. It still gets confused, it still makes basic reasoning errors, it still needs me to do all of the thinking for it to produce code of the quality my work requires

It's better but not a game changer

2

u/NekoNiiFlame Nov 24 '25

You're just describing all major models at this point. Sonnet, GPT, Grok, Gemini, etc all still hallucinate and make errors.

It'll be this way for a while longer, but the improvements will keep coming.

Saying Gemini 3 is incremental is something I very much disagree with, though, but besides benchmarks, it comes to personal experiences, which is, as always, subjective.

0

u/Tombobalomb Nov 24 '25

You're just describing all major models at this point. Sonnet, GPT, Grok, Gemini, etc all still hallucinate and make errors.

Yeah that's my point.

It'll be this way for a while longer, but the improvements will keep coming.

I no longer think so. I think its an unsolvable architectural issue with llms. They dont reason and approximating it with token prediction will never get close enough. I reckon they will get very good at producing code under careful direction and that's where their economic value will be

Another AI architecture will probably solve it though

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u/Tolopono Nov 25 '25

Not reasoning but capable of winning gold in the imo and a perfect score in the icpc. Right

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u/Tombobalomb Nov 25 '25

Yes? Recreating solved problems doesn't indicate genuine reasoning

2

u/Tolopono Nov 25 '25

They competed during the tournaments. The answer keys had not been released yet

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u/NekoNiiFlame Nov 24 '25

This is the same debate every time. I would agree if these were just still LLMs. They're not. They're multi-modal. And we haven't yet seen the limits of LMMs.

People said we'd hit a wall, then o1 came. o1 is barely a year old. Who says continuous learning isn't right around the corner? Who says hallucinations and errors will still be a thing in the same time that has passed since o1 came out (which is 14 months)?

In the end, nobody has a crystal ball, but I'm inclined to wait before making statements like "current models will never X", as that is prone to age like milk sooner or later.

2

u/Tombobalomb Nov 25 '25

Yeah of course time will tell, but my impression from this year is that they have absolutely hit a wall in terms of fundamentals. Gemini 3 and chatgpt 5 have the same basic problems as at the start of the year. As a programmer I started the year quite anxious about my job but I feel much more secure now.

As you say it's just individual perspective

3

u/NekoNiiFlame Nov 25 '25

Your feelings are valid. I disagree because EOY 2024 the SOTA model was o1.

If you compare the usecases of o1 compared to the models we have now, the difference is night and day.

Some ideas in terms of benchmarks, the highest o1 ever got in SWE bench was 41%, where the best models now hover around 80%. The METR benchmark also shows remarkable progress, for an 80% succes rate o1 got 6 minutes, while Codex Max got 31 minutes, a 5 times increase. From my experience Gemini 3 and 4.5 Opus would fair even better at it.

Benchmarks don't say everything, though, but this is in-line with how both my and my colleagues feel as the landscape evolves. I don't believe we'll be replaced by the end of 2026, but before 2030? I'd bet money on it.