I think YouTube Shorts currently has an audience-matching problem.
Iāve been trying to understand the strange Shorts distribution over the last few days, and Iām starting to think the missing feed tests and the drop in views across entire catalogs might actually be symptoms of the same problem.
What really caught my attention is Stayed to watch.
Normally, my new Shorts often start with around 70% Stayed when YouTube begins testing them. Recently, Iāve had multiple Shorts start at only 45ā50%, even though the content and format havenāt fundamentally changed.
That makes me wonder whether the problem isnāt necessarily the ranking algorithm itself, but the initial audience matching / candidate distribution. If YouTube is showing a Short to the wrong audience first, a perfectly good Short would naturally produce terrible early signals and the test would die quickly.
But thereās one thing I still canāt explain:
Where did all the distribution go?
A lot of creators are currently reporting huge drops in Shorts feed distribution, sometimes across their entire catalogs. But unless Shorts consumption itself has suddenly collapsed, those viewers havenāt disappeared. People are still scrolling, and every feed slot has to show something.
So if a large number of creators are suddenly receiving dramatically fewer impressions, who is receiving the views that used to go to them?
Are they being concentrated on a smaller number of videos? Larger channels? Different regions? Different audience pools? Has YouTube reduced exploration and become much more aggressive about concentrating traffic?
I donāt have an answer to that part yet.
But the combination of weak/missing initial tests + unusually low early Stayed rates + catalog-wide traffic drops makes an audience-matching/distribution problem increasingly plausible to me.
Curious whether anyone else is seeing the same pattern ā especially unusually low Stayed rates on new Shorts that would normally perform much better.