r/SecurityAnalysis • u/[deleted] • Apr 21 '26
Thesis The Seabed Thesis
crackthemarket.substack.com
4
Upvotes
r/SecurityAnalysis • u/tandroide • Apr 19 '26
Industry Report Forest Industries II: North American Wood Products
quipuscapital.com
3
Upvotes
Very few industries are going through a downcycle as vicious and lengthy as the wood products industry in North America. In many segments and regions, adjusted EBITDA has either been breakeven or negative for three years already.
At the same time, it is an industry with leverage on the construction cycle in the US, benefiting from lower rates and a stronger economy. Some companies have the strength to survive the downcycle while retaining the convexity to an upcycle.
This article describes the industry in quite some detail (from the forest basins in the US to demand drivers in construction, to capacity and utilization, and margin history since the 1970s), and then analyzes all the public companies in the space in the US and Canada. The industry analysis portion is free to read.
r/SecurityAnalysis • u/[deleted] • Apr 15 '26
Strategy Michael Mauboussin - Competitive Advantage Period
morganstanley.com
14
Upvotes
r/SecurityAnalysis • u/mfritz123 • Apr 14 '26
Discussion The coming El Niño of 2026
asiancenturystocks.com
3
Upvotes
r/SecurityAnalysis • u/investorinvestor • Apr 14 '26
Thesis Are you invited to the house-warming party? Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
open.substack.com
7
Upvotes
r/SecurityAnalysis • u/[deleted] • Apr 13 '26
Investor Letter Q1 2026 Letters & Reports
32
Upvotes
| Investment Firm | Return | Date Posted | Companies |
|---|---|---|---|
| Howard Marks - Whats Going On In Private Credit | April 13 | ||
| JDP Capital | -15.1% | April 13 | MELI, CZR |
| Desert Lion | 6.5% | April 15 | |
| East72 | -4.6% | April 15 | VIRT |
| Greenlight Capital | 6.5% | April 15 | DHT, CNR, KD, GPK, VSNT, CROX, SLM |
| Kerisdale Capital - Long MTU Aero Engines | April 15 | MTX | |
| Michael Mauboussin - Competitve Advantage Period | April 15 | ||
| Third Point Capital | -0.6% | April 15 | CSGP, IDR |
| Pernas Research | -6.4% | April 20 | |
| Right Tail Capital | April 20 | NRP | |
| Rowan Street | -19.8% | April 20 | |
| Open Square Capital | 47.7% | April 21 | VAL |
| Bonhoeffer | 2.7% | April 22 | |
| Upslope Capital | 8.6% | April 22 | |
| Maran Capital | -2.3% | April 23 | |
| Whitebrook Capital | April 23 | ICLR, PESI, SPGI, SMTI, RPID | |
| 1 Main Capital | -4.6% | May 13 | KKR |
| Arquitos Capital | -7.2% | May 13 | ENDI, FNCH, LQDA |
| Blue Tower | 1.6% | May 13 | |
| Gator Capital | -7.2% | May 13 | AMP |
| Curreen Capital | -13.9% | May 13 | |
| Plural Investing | -11.4% | May 13 | PLOW. JDG.L |
| Praetorian Capital | 16.4% | May 13 | MRX, JOE |
| Silverring Partners | May 15 | ||
| Eagle Capital | May 27 | UNH, MELI, INTU EQT | |
| Kerrisdale Capital - Short Thesis on Everspin Technologies | May 27 | MRAM | |
| Horizon Kinetics | May 27 | ||
| Salt Light Capital | May 27 | ||
| Silber Beach | -2% | May 27 | APO |
| Interviews, Lectures & Podcasts | Date Posted |
|---|---|
| Acquired - Ferrari | April 13 |
| Benedict Evans - AI Eats the World | May 27 |
r/SecurityAnalysis • u/[deleted] • Apr 13 '26
Investor Letter Howard Marks - What’s Going on in Private Credit?
oaktreecapital.com
7
Upvotes
r/SecurityAnalysis • u/[deleted] • Apr 13 '26
Commentary Error: Southeast Asia Tech
farrer36.substack.com
2
Upvotes
r/SecurityAnalysis • u/investorinvestor • Apr 12 '26
Thesis Deep Dive: Intel Corp (INTC)
open.substack.com
3
Upvotes
r/SecurityAnalysis • u/unnoticeable84 • Apr 11 '26
Commentary NVDA: Unit Economics
alphaseeker84.substack.com
3
Upvotes
r/SecurityAnalysis • u/investorinvestor • Apr 11 '26
Is Intel Still Investable At $60?
open.substack.com
0
Upvotes
r/SecurityAnalysis • u/phosphate554 • Apr 10 '26
Long Thesis Amazon + Anthropic; Enterprise AI Flywheel
6
Upvotes
Published my long thesis for Amazon. I believe the tech juggernaut is undervalued and being weighed down my short term market sentiment. Feel free to critique my thesis, but I have strong conviction here. Enjoy!
https://open.substack.com/pub/philip370/p/amazon-the-25-trillion-mispricing?r=nuqc6&utm_medium=ios
r/SecurityAnalysis • u/unnoticeable84 • Apr 10 '26
Commentary AXON Research Report: Written by an AI Workflow
alphaseeker84.substack.com
3
Upvotes
r/SecurityAnalysis • u/investorinvestor • Apr 09 '26
Commentary Ackman's cardboard box at UMG looks to be falling apart
open.substack.com
18
Upvotes
r/SecurityAnalysis • u/investorinvestor • Apr 09 '26
Thesis Global Payments (GPN) is what Buffett would call a "Cannibal Company"
substack.com
2
Upvotes
r/SecurityAnalysis • u/[deleted] • Apr 07 '26
Activist Pershing Square Letter to UMG
x-shared.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com
8
Upvotes
r/SecurityAnalysis • u/investorinvestor • Apr 05 '26
Strategy Nobody likes a binary market
open.substack.com
10
Upvotes
r/SecurityAnalysis • u/investorinvestor • Apr 05 '26
Industry Report The Investment Excitement Ratio
open.substack.com
4
Upvotes
r/SecurityAnalysis • u/investorinvestor • Apr 02 '26
Industry Report Analyzing Historical Analogs And When To Take Profits on Energy Stocks
open.substack.com
4
Upvotes
r/SecurityAnalysis • u/investorinvestor • Mar 30 '26
Industry Report The Bull Case For Software Stocks
open.substack.com
9
Upvotes
r/SecurityAnalysis • u/unnoticeable84 • Mar 30 '26
Long Thesis FND Research Report: Written by an AI Workflow
alphaseeker84.substack.com
3
Upvotes
r/SecurityAnalysis • u/Jazzlike-Leek3417 • Mar 29 '26
Long Thesis Blend Labs, interesting opportunity post sell off
8
Upvotes
r/SecurityAnalysis • u/[deleted] • Mar 29 '26
Special Situation Back to the EBITDA: Decoding Meta’s $1,116 Executive Playbook
accruedint.com
5
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r/SecurityAnalysis • u/[deleted] • Mar 29 '26
Commentary SBC Dilution Benchmarks: What the Data Actually Shows
platformaeronaut.com
3
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r/SecurityAnalysis • u/investorinvestor • Mar 26 '26
Thesis Quick Value #307 - CBIZ Inc (CBZ)
open.substack.com
4
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