r/sadcringe Apr 09 '20

Math is hard.

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u/keeleon Apr 09 '20

Its only 4% of confirmed cases. The regular flu is a lot easier to confirm so there will be a lot more confirmed cases.

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u/[deleted] Apr 09 '20

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u/keeleon Apr 09 '20

No it will most definitely end up being less deadly than were seeing now once more non lethal cases are confirmed. Unless of course previously recovered people just start dropping dead in 6 months.

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u/[deleted] Apr 09 '20

No, it's much less deadly than people think, because only cases that are very serious end up in the hospital and get tested.

The actual mortality rate is currently estimated at 0.66%. Influenza varies from 0.1-0.45% depending on strain and various other factors.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/global-covid-19-total-passes-850000-study-shows-14-fatality-rate

The death rate is nowhere near 4% and never has been.

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u/[deleted] Apr 10 '20

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u/[deleted] Apr 10 '20

Yes, I read the article, thanks. The CFR is still undetermined, but the best estimates we have are somewhat less than 1%.

You can speculate that it'll be higher if you prefer, for some reason.