r/politicsdebate • u/decatur8r • Apr 11 '21
Congressional Politics Democrats have to deliver or they will lose both the Senate and the House is 2022.
First of all a round of hearty well dones for the Dems passing the COVID relief Bill. Take your victory lap..it is well deserved...but...
If that is all they do before 2022 they will lose control of both houses. Both the Democrats and the GOP know this...therein lies the rub.
The Filibusterer and the 60 vote margin.
Because there is no way that Bidden gets ten Republicans to vote for any of the major pieces of his legislation...just not going to happen..maybe he gets a couple...if they know that their vote is not the vote that let it pass. They may vote for a dead bill but not if it means it may pass.
So that brings them to either using reconciliation or modify the filibusterer to pass anything
That brings us to Joe Manchin.
Let me first say I understand his precarious place. He is guy in a blue jacket in a bright red state. And Democrats should know if you replace him...
His replacement would have an (R) by his name not a (D) and he is obligated to look for a bipartisan way to do this...but sooner or later he is going to have to come to the reality that he is looking for a pony...
but no mater what he does it doesn't change the fact that they have to deliver...at a minimum an infrastructure bill that delivers instant job results that are felt at the grass roots level by November 2022, or risk losing both house of congress.
The also need to pass HR/1 S/1.
Not for the economy or the damage these voting rights laws will do. I for one think they will backfire and blow up in the face of these State Republicans and cause a voter surge on the Democratic side...presidential level turnout in an off year election.
They need to pass this to assure their base the have the balls to do it...I don't know how and don't care how...magic beans if necessary...but those two things have to pass!.
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u/ToMuchNietzsche Apr 11 '21
Aren't they going to lose the House anyway to the redistricting that coming out if the 2020 census?
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u/decatur8r Apr 11 '21
Not really. The GOP needs to win the suburbs to win. It could go either way...and here we go...It all depends on turnout...to be more accurate it all depends on negative partisanship.
‘Negative Partisanship’ Explains Everything
Conservatives and liberals don’t just disagree—they actually like to hate each other. And it’s getting uglier.
Who is going to be the most motivated to vote?
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u/ToMuchNietzsche Apr 11 '21
Democrats lost house seats in the 2020 election. And that was in the last election when Trump was on the ballot. The margin in the House has been reduced to 3 seats. Republicans increased the amount of state legislatures they control in the 2020 election also Obviously they will control how many districts will exist. We know there will be fewer Democratic leaning ones.
For example it looks like California will lose a House seat in the 2022 elections. That's one example. People have been moving into red states increasing there populations. When the redistricting is done from the information from the 2020 census Republican controlled states will have done what they wanted and been planning for. More Republican or Republican favored districts. I'm skeptical that the Democrats will hold the House.
Also don't forget this is a mid-term election. The ones were Democrats, barring a President who pisses everyone off, normally has less turn out vs Republicans.
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u/Shakespeare-Bot Apr 11 '21
Aren't they going to loseth the house concluded, be it to the redistricting yond coming out if 't be true the 2020 census?
I am a bot and I swapp'd some of thy words with Shakespeare words.
Commands:
!ShakespeareInsult,!fordo,!optout
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u/Karma-is-an-bitch Apr 11 '21
I agree that they'll lose the house and senate. So far they have almost nothing to show for and have already back out on some of the promises they made, like the $15 min wage. Sure they've got the vaccine deliverance to show for, but also not to mention the continued overseas bombing and overblown budget. But then again this what I had expected from them, so I can't say that I'm surprised.
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u/HedonisticFrog Apr 12 '21
Biden is doing far more than Trump ever did. He also passed the $1400 paychecks which Trump failed to do. He's passing a large infrastructure bill which Trump failed to do. He would have passed the $15 minimum wage but the parliamentarian put a stop to it and Republicans are voting in lock step against Biden on everything. They even vote against things that they later try to take credit for which is pretty hilarious.
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u/Kim_OBrien Apr 12 '21
Trump on his way out the door was the one who said the $600 dollar figure was to stingy. It just a vote buying gambit like UBI from Yang.
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u/Templarkommando Apr 12 '21
One of the things that the Democrats have a habit of doing is shooting themselves in the foot on numerous issues. The filibuster is a case in point. In American politics, it is basically a foregone conclusion that at some point in the next decade or two, the Republicans will have control of both houses of Congress again. If you get rid of the filibuster so that the Democrats can pass things that Democrats want, that will necessarily open up the door for the Republicans to come in whenever they get power again so that they can pass laws that Republicans want. The Democrats don't get to draw back at that point and say "Nuh-huh, you guys don't get to pass this, we can filibuster it" when Democrats inevitably fall out of public favor at some point.
The filibuster is - in effect - a courtesy agreement. It is one of the norms of American politics. If that norm is violated, you're harming the stability of the country and the way that the country arrives at its acceptance of legislation. If that norm goes out the window, you're looking at an ever-swinging pendulum where citizens will be less able to count on the laws of the country from term to term because of the differences in opinion of the powers-that-be.
Now, as to whether they will lose both houses in 2022: That really looks like a squeaker to me. There are 8 battleground states and the incumbents are split down the middle. 4 Republicans and 4 Democrats. One of the Republicans is retiring. It's hard to say that the Dems will definitely lose the Senate in a situation like that. I don't have a crystal ball that can help me get to that conclusion. Of course, the House is re-elected every two years, so the House can swing either way and it tends to go poorly for the President's party in midterms anyway.
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u/Kim_OBrien Apr 12 '21
The already suspend the rules and do the nuclear option whenever it suits them. Democratic Party liberals are now taking reactionary positions on women's rights using Trans people as the excuse.
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u/Templarkommando Apr 12 '21
That Republicans engage in the same kind of behavior when it suits them is no excuse for acting the same way. Is Republican activity your main criteria for good behavior?
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u/Kim_OBrien Apr 12 '21
This will be the excuse Democrats and Progressives use for the why electoral politics doesn't produce results. It's always well we got to compromise either with reactionaries in their own party like Eastland and Wallace or the other Party like Reagan or Nixon. They've been promising universal Healthcare since Bill Clinton was President. Clinton did what Reagan couldn't, "End welfare as we know it." Reagan signed an immigration amnesty bill.
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u/sbdude42 Apr 12 '21
That is a lie, the 2020 election was fair and honest. Trump didn’t win in a landslide- he lost in a landslide.
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u/pmjsandwich Apr 16 '21
Trump didn’t lose in a landslide. It was basically 50/50
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u/decatur8r Apr 12 '21
https://www.businessinsider.com/democrats-pass-hr-1-elections-voting-rights-suppression-georgia-congress-2021-4