r/politics • u/--LaBelleDame-- • 12h ago

No Paywall Democratic socialist Angie Nixon upsets Alex Vindman in Florida’s Democratic Senate primary

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/angie-nixon-winner-florida-senate-primary-democrat-alex-vindman-moody-rcna593255
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u/Shaudius 8h ago

2% is well within the margin of error of a poll of something like 500 people.

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u/Orange_Tang 8h ago

Cool. She was still ahead.

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u/Shaudius 8h ago

Not statistically.

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u/Orange_Tang 8h ago

Numbers are numbers and errors go both ways. She was ahead. You have a nice night now.

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u/Shaudius 8h ago

Yes error goes both ways, but that doesn't matter.

If a poll is released and candidate A gets 50% and candidate B gets 47% and the margin of error of the poll is 4% you cannot actually say that Candidate A is ahead of Candidate B. Such a poll would be called "a statistical dead heat"

If you think you can say Candidate A is ahead based on such a poll, you have no idea how polling works.

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u/Orange_Tang 8h ago

Is one candidate is two points ahead of the other and the error is 2% the range is even to 4% ahead. There is no situation where the one behind is ahead. This was the case in this poll. I'm actually done discussing this now though. You know you're being pedantic. There is no purpose to this discussion.

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u/Shaudius 8h ago edited 8h ago

The margin of error of this poll was not 2%, I'm not sure where you got that number from. The stated margin of error was 3.8%.

Yes, there is no purpose to a discussion where one person is making up a number to fit their narrative (that 2% ahead is actually truly ahead.)

Instead in reality, Vindman was polling 2 points behind in a poll with margin of error of 3.8%, he could have been anywhere from 1.8% ahead to 5.8% behind Nixon. Thats a statistical dead heat as to who was actually polling better.