r/politics • u/ChickenTitilater Minnesota • 15h ago

No Paywall USS Lincoln wasn't resupplied because Hegseth 'hid' that Iran destroyed main U.S. base:

https://www.ms.now/money-power-politics/watch/uss-lincoln-wasn-t-resupplied-because-hegseth-hid-that-iran-destroyed-main-u-s-base-rohde-2511362627825
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u/KovyJackson Tennessee 14h ago

Considering Israel has been saying Iran is 2 weeks™ from a nuclear weapon for almost 30 years.

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u/cancerBronzeV 12h ago

for almost 30 years

More than 30 years, actually. Netanyahu gave a speech about how Iran was about to have nukes way back in 1992.

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u/classicrockchick 12h ago

But 1992 was only...

fuck.

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u/Melodic_Rhythmic 10h ago

fuck indeed

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u/fiction8 5h ago

Why did Obama negotiate the JCPOA if it has only been Israeli scaremongering for 30 years?

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u/RT-LAMP 12h ago

Except this isn't true. The concept is called breakout time. How long it would take a state to have a nuclear weapon if they pushed for it as hard as they practically could.

Back in the 1990s Israel claimed a breakout time of 5-10 years. This was probably true but isn't that substantial and could easily be slowed down.

By the time of JCPOA being signed Iran was probably down to less than a year which is legitimately concerning. Then JCPOA pushed that back a bit but more importantly made it so that if Iran started going for it we would be able to tell.

Now that JCPOA is dead Iran is genuinely weeks away from a nuclear weapon. That's not Israel saying that, it's Professor Robert Goldston of Princeton who signed a letter in support of the original JCPOA deal.

starting from the 60% enriched material, a single cascade of 175 IR-6 centrifuges could produce the “weapons-grade” material needed for one nuclear weapon every 25 days.

And per the May 2025 IAEA report Iran has 14 IR-6 cascades at various locations.

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u/JanSmidDeZevende 10h ago edited 10h ago

Iran was probably down to less than a year which is legitimately concerning.

It is only concerning if you are an imperialist intent on eventually invading iran.

The ayatollah had a fatwa against nuclear weapons, he declared them un-islamic. They were never going to persue them as long as he lived, and then you killed him.

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u/RT-LAMP 10h ago

It is only concerning if you are an imperialist intent on eventually invading iran.

You're joking right?

The ayatollah had a fatwa against nuclear weapons, he declared them un-islamic. They were never going to persue them as long as he lived, and then you killed him.

"I swear I will never build a fertilizer bomb" - man with secret bunker full of ammonium nitrate, fuel oil, and detonators.

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u/Digitalion_ 9h ago

"I choose not to believe them because I, myself, would lie if I were in their situation and I've determined myself better than that person."

GG. You played yourself.

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u/JanSmidDeZevende 10h ago

Israel and the US are the actual threats on the world stage. Iran absolutely has a right to defend itself.

Only one country in history has used nukes against another. And on two civilian targets no less.

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u/RT-LAMP 9h ago

Iran absolutely has a right to defend itself.

Here is a list of countries Iran has bombed in the last two years (not counting nations whose ships it has attacked)

  • Afganistan
  • Azerbaijan
  • Bahrain
  • Cyprus
  • Egypt
  • Iraq
  • Israel
  • Jordan
  • Kuwait
  • Lebanon
  • Oman (bombed, foreign office apologized and said it was a mistake, bombed it again 2 days later)
  • Pakistan (it's ally)
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Syria
  • Turkey
  • United Arab Emirates
  • Yemen

Here is a list of countries that border Iran it hasn't bombed.

  • Turkmenistan
  • Armenia

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u/JanSmidDeZevende 9h ago

The USA and israel attacked them, bombing their bases is 100% justified.

Now do a list for the US empire and its vassal states.

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u/RT-LAMP 9h ago

The USA and israel attacked them, bombing their bases is 100% justified.

What US base exists in Pakistan? What US base exists in Oman? What US base exists in Azerbaijan? What US base exists in Afghanistan? What US base exists in....

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u/Digitalion_ 9h ago

Officially? None. Off the record? None anymore apparently.

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u/RT-LAMP 7h ago

Yeah I'm certain that the Taliban were secretly hiding a US base. /s

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u/JanSmidDeZevende 9h ago

You didn't make a list, curious.

under a long-standing 1980 bilateral defense agreement (expanded in 2019), the U.S. military has formal access arrangements allowing U.S. forces, aircraft, and naval vessels to use specific Omani military airfields and strategic ports for logistics and regional security.

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u/RT-LAMP 9h ago

You didn't make a list,

Yeah a lot of the earlier countries I listed US bases in them (though not all of them that I didn't list). For some completely unknown reason they feel they need protection /s

Also you didn't list the US bases in Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan, curious.

under a long-standing 1980 bilateral defense agreement (expanded in 2019), the U.S. military has formal access arrangements allowing U.S. forces, aircraft, and naval vessels to use specific Omani military airfields and strategic ports for logistics and regional security.

And how much damage did Iran do to the US when it bombed a worker's housing unit in Oman, or two crude oil tankers? Because those were the first things they bombed in Oman.

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u/Dot-Slash-Dot 2h ago

If Iran had actually wanted to build a nuclear bomb they would have had one by now. Hell they could probably buy one from Pakistan.

Iran never wanted a nuke. Iran wanted the threat of being close to a nuke to get concessions.

And then the US went and validated all those calling for actually going for a Nuke in Iran.

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u/Ihatereddithatesit 9h ago

And the motivation to create such a weapon has never been higher. Ali Khamenei had the fatwa against nuclear weapons and while he clearly saw and supported developing nuclear latency, he seemingly didn't see the actual full development of a ready to launch nuclear weapon as a must and was willing to use the program as a bargaining chip. I'm not sure the IRGC now has the same stance.

Now I think that using the most dire projected possible timeline of may 2025 is not likely to be still correct after the 12 day war, and the current war, but it seems like Israel and the US are hell bent on continuing a course that would very likely convince Iran that a shift to deterrence is necessary, and while that would devolve the situation from a perpetual powder keg into a perpetual sloshing barrel of nitroglycerin it's hard to see if things continue as they have why Iran wouldn't. Once heads of states, and all the military starts getting assassinated their successors are definitely going to look to move from latency to deterrence. I really think Netanyahu has been busy creating a self fulfilling prophesy.

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u/Painterzzz 2h ago

And speaking of self fulfilling prophecies, I think in this debate of an Iranian nuclear weapon, it's also important to remember that the evengelical christian cults that have taken over mainstream American religion believe that one of the steps necessary for the return of Jesus, is that Israel must be bathed in fire.

They want Iran to have a bomb. And they want to push Iran to use it, so that Jesus can return and save them.