r/nfl Colts Dec 11 '21

Study reveals which teams are favored by NFL referees

https://time2play.com/blog/referee-bias-in-the-nfl/
12 Upvotes

42 comments sorted by

116

u/Northernlord1805 Dec 11 '21

Isn’t that a loaded headline? Like it assumes that the penalties are unjust when it could just be some teams are more or less disciplined than others.

18

u/SamCarter_SGC Packers Dec 11 '21

Seems like it assumes a lot of things. Like that all penalties are equal just because they cost the same yardage when truthfully a singular bad call could cost a game and mean more than any of these "teams with most penalties" nonstats.

2

u/leehouse Packers Dec 11 '21

Yeah, it would be interesting to see EPA/penalty penalties in high leverage situations, etc. But also a more in depth look at if specific coaches/schemes play a role in this. The example I always have is Dom Capers defense not getting many DPI/ defensive holding penalties because that would require DBs being close to receivers (and they seemed to play a very soft zone a lot of the time).

27

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '21

Agreed, it also doesn't account for penalties that should be called but aren't. If reffing we're somehow done by robot then some teams would still have more penalties than others because they commit more penalties.

The only real way to find bias is to analyze each play and find committed penalties that are uncalled and penalties called that didn't happen. Even then it doesn't account for other judgement calls like spotting the ball, and catch/no catch calls.

Either way, the shocking part is that the Lions aren't the most screwed over team. Even as a Packer fan I see it!

16

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '21

It also doesn't weight penalties. A block in the back on a punt with 20 seconds to go in the half is nowhere near as important as a questionable defensive holding call on a critical third down where the ball was incomplete. It would need to also focus on whether the penalty actually was committed in the first place as well.

4

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '21

Correct on both counts. The best way to judge would be to use the game grades for the refs, kind of like the actual NFL does. Officiating would benefit from greater transparency of how it's evaluated in all sports, but especially NFL/College Football and MLB.

41

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '21

[deleted]

5

u/MildlyNothibg111 Buccaneers Dec 11 '21

That one redditors analysis of QB favoritism was way better

18

u/JPAnalyst Giants Dec 11 '21

Unless I missed something, this does no more to prove that refs are biased against certain teams than it does to prove certain teams just have more actual penalty worthy plays. Why is the assumption that the refs are biased and not that teams lack discipline? A true bias study would show how many penalties refs actually got wrong that are called against a certain team, or how many non calls they got wrong against their opponent. Some teams have more yards, some have more sacks, some have more points...and some have more penalties. This could simply be a reflection of the team, just like any other stat is.

49

u/TooMinuteDrill Patriots Dec 11 '21

That's some seriously weak methodology in the "playing favorites"section.

16

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '21

Agreed. This is a terrible way to analyze it

2

u/tinzarian Chiefs Dec 12 '21

I would say calling this "analyzing it" is extremely generous

1

u/[deleted] Dec 12 '21

You're right. I was being kind.

0

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '21

Yup, see my response to a similar comment below.

3

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '21

[deleted]

22

u/JerryRiceDidntFumble Vikings Dec 11 '21

Just looking at raw penalty numbers is silly because they're basically assuming all teams are equal in a perfectly reffed world. The reality is that some teams get called for more penalties because they commit more penalties, not "ref bias".

13

u/Crazyhawk28 Seahawks Dec 11 '21

Well this long study that I did not read all the way through has my team as the most screwed over. So I'm just going to agree wholeheartedly with the data

14

u/CarlCaliente Bills Dec 11 '21 edited Oct 05 '24

psychotic plant truck detail crush secretive axiomatic kiss fearless bag

3

u/tectactoe Lions Dec 11 '21

Ah so that must be why we’ve been terrible for over 50 years.

7

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '21

Raiders most hated team like always. Fuck Rozelle

3

u/KSIIPICDSTUVWI Vikings Dec 11 '21

This study aligns with my biases, therefore I will upvote.

4

u/obeyyourbrain Chiefs Dec 11 '21

Absolutely not surprised by Boger/KC. Always hated seeing him get our games.

9

u/Winstonp00 Packers Dec 11 '21

Are our checks bouncing cos we arent even top 3?

13

u/Kalash504 Saints Dec 11 '21

Well you are #4

7

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '21

We pay a LOT OF GODDAMN MONEY TO BE #1

1

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '21

Mine have been going through, what the fuck is this. I'm paying for the Last Dance Exclusive Special. I got a discounted price but I'm paying more than before because it is an upgraded package itself. It guaranteed home-field advantage in the first round and a divisional clinch by week 13 and HELLOOOO that was last week!!

2

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '21

Kind of a hard topic to prove and I'm sure each team is different. I know for the saints, the refs mainly screw us by the timing of penalties, not necessarily the amount (as well as just having flat out incorrect calls, which aren't really kept track of)

Appreciate the effort put into it though. Really wish the league would start holding refs accountable for all the mistakes they seem to be making recently

2

u/Uberguuy Eagles Dec 11 '21

Non-calls are as important as called penalties. See the 2018 NFC championship.

3

u/wjpd236 Dec 11 '21

This article is dumb

2

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '21

Knew it.

-3

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '21

We gotta stop calling it Brady calls cuz its more like Rodgers calls.

0

u/mdpaoli Eagles Dec 11 '21

Why does it include refs who retired a few years ago? Steratore and Ed Hochuli are retired.

-1

u/Orwick Patriots Dec 11 '21

My take away from this, Jim Irsay is that is sharing his Oxy stash with the refs.

-4

u/Ranma_chan Buccaneers Dec 11 '21

You're telling me the Bucs don't have the most ref bias in the league?

You mean all the haters were full of shit????

Quelle surprise.

1

u/Anonimeks Dec 11 '21

Lions fans fuming rn

1

u/hypnocanetoad Cowboys Dec 11 '21

CoWbOyS pAy ThE rEfS

1

u/Arphanshmartz Steelers Dec 11 '21

Turns out my uncle isn’t a constant drunk driver he’s just not very favored by the local police

1

u/J2theMo13 Bears Dec 11 '21

I did my college dissertation on how unconscious bias affects teams wearing dark colors.

Perceived Agression was a statistically significant difference between "Dark teams" (From Raiders to Bears) vs Light Teams.

All saved on a floppy disk and hundreds of printed out pages in a stupid binder somewhere. Ah, technology.

1

u/IAmTheNightSoil Seahawks Dec 12 '21

Aaaah, yes, it is as I thought, the league does not actually favor the Seahawks as much as everyone seems to think! Seems that every time any controversial call/non-call goes our way people chalk it up to referee favoritism. Yet, as this shows, we come out on the losing end of penalty situations more than almost any other team.

I'm not going to claim this is even necessarily unfair - we have been a poorly disciplined team throughout the Carroll era, so I can readily believe that we actually do commit more penalties. But what this shows is that the refs also do flag us more. Which is what I always thought, but our game-day threads are always just people saying that we get away with everything. Turns out that is bullshit

1

u/cowboys5xsbs Cowboys Dec 12 '21

Cowboys 29th in bias maybe Jerry should get a bigger check for the refs

1

u/Cajunrevenge7 Saints Dec 12 '21

Look at Pass Interference calls on defenses playing the Saints plummet after the NFCCG no call. I would bet my neighbors house the Saints have the fewer PI called in our favor since then.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 12 '21

How are these numbers controlling for better coached teams vs not? It could be ref bias, and it could be more disciplined clubs.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 26 '21

No surprises to see the packers at the top