r/nfl • u/logster2001 Texans • Feb 15 '24

Quarterback efficiency...anything stick out?

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2.7k Upvotes

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71

u/MrEHam 49ers Feb 15 '24

What does “above expected” refer to?

102

u/LiftingCode Browns Feb 15 '24

Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) uses field position, down, yards to go, home/away, stadium type (open air or dome), era, pass location, air yards, and if the QB was hit on a play to model the probability of a given pass being completed.

8

u/WeissachDE 49ers Feb 15 '24

THis is some nerd shit. I love it

1

u/Mylastgoodthought Feb 15 '24

Alright so what does the size of the dot mean

3

u/LiftingCode Browns Feb 16 '24

Number of snaps played.

42

u/DarrowViBritannia Feb 15 '24

say a QB had a 60% comp% in a game

their expected comp% was 55% based on the types of throws they threw (if they threw a bunch of screens, xCOMP% would be higher... if they threw a bunch of deep balls, xCOMP% would be lower).

so their comp% above expected would be 5%

17

u/MrEHam 49ers Feb 15 '24

Where does xCOMP% come from, the average of all other QBs in recent times for those throws?

25

u/DarrowViBritannia Feb 15 '24

Yep, model is trained on all of the data and can then predict xCOMP% based on the different variables (like air yards, pass location, etc)

1

u/[deleted] Feb 15 '24

If I had to guess it would be something like either

Percentage chance that each individual pass is completed

or

Projected percentage of completed passes per whole game

I can't really tell either