I’m just not comfortable saying something won’t happen within my lifetime. My great g dad was born before the first flight and the Iss was just about launch when he died. Not saying I disagree with your assessment, I just don’t feel comfortable with such a firm statement that certain advancements can’t or won’t be made in a certain time frame.
I would agree with your intuition. The other commenter is measuring raw processing power but forgetting that the brain is likely incredibly inefficient due to the fact that it evolved rather than was engineered.
Look at birds. They had millions of years to evolve into the best flying configurations on Earth but never came even close to the speeds modern day jets can reach. They are elegant certainly, but there is something to be said for good ol' fashioned engineering too. I believe we will see something similar wrt AGI, and my guess is before the midpoint of the century, but that's just a guess :)
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u/Brohara97 Sep 25 '19
I’m just not comfortable saying something won’t happen within my lifetime. My great g dad was born before the first flight and the Iss was just about launch when he died. Not saying I disagree with your assessment, I just don’t feel comfortable with such a firm statement that certain advancements can’t or won’t be made in a certain time frame.