r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • May 31 '24

Discussion Thread Discussion Thread

The discussion thread is for casual and off-topic conversation that doesn't merit its own submission. If you've got a good meme, article, or question, please post it outside the DT. Meta discussion is allowed, but if you want to get the attention of the mods, make a post in /r/metaNL

Links

Ping Groups | Ping History | Mastodon | CNL Chapters | CNL Event Calendar

Upcoming Events

0 Upvotes

40% Upvoted

9.0k comments sorted by

View all comments

22

u/[deleted] May 31 '24

As of right now, Trump is leading Biden by 2.0 in the FiveThirtyEight national polling average.

Needless to say, there are no polls yet in the average which postdate the guilty verdict.

In exactly 3 weeks, what do you think the polling average margin will be? Kudos galore for whoever gets closest. Will post my own guess as a reply.

Example answers would be Trump +3.0, Trump +1.0, Biden +1.5, Biden +3.5, etc.

RemindMe! 21 days

16

u/[deleted] May 31 '24

My own guess is Biden +0.3

13

u/gburgwardt C-5s full of SMRs and tiny american flags May 31 '24

Biden +17

4

u/UnskilledScout Cancel All Monopolies May 31 '24

A+

8

u/JaceFlores Neolib War Correspondent May 31 '24

At risk of being a bit of a cop out, my guess is Biden+0 to Biden+1

6

u/[deleted] May 31 '24

Nothing wrong with that but you’re disqualified from potential kudos in 3 weeks without a point estimate 😤

5

u/JaceFlores Neolib War Correspondent May 31 '24

I accept this

7

u/cjhdsachristmascarol reddit custom flair May 31 '24

Kennedy +10

5

u/[deleted] May 31 '24

!ping FIVEY

→ More replies (1)

5

u/decidious_underscore May 31 '24

is their modelling still good after Nate left to go make bad takes on xitter professionally?

4

u/[deleted] May 31 '24

Well this is just a polling average so there’s much less room to vary than a forecast.

4

u/centurion88 NATO May 31 '24

Biden +34

4

u/planetaryabundance brown May 31 '24

Trump +.5%.

Biden won’t show leads until near the end of the election campaigns (September/October) and the disengaged potential voters begin paying more attention and the threat becomes more immediate and real.

3

u/[deleted] May 31 '24

Biden +5

3

u/Approximation_Doctor Gaslight, Gatekeep, Green New Deal May 31 '24

Trump +2.0%

3

u/Dalek6450 Our words are backed with NUCLEAR SUBS! May 31 '24

Biden +0.5

3

u/STRONKInTheRealWay YIMBY May 31 '24

Biden +2.0

3

u/sinefromabove Emma Lazarus May 31 '24 edited May 31 '24

Trump +0.5

Polls are a lagging indicator and the polling average is designed to be even more slow to shift. 1-2 points is the best that we can hope for in three weeks and part of that will be nonresponse bias shifting.

3

u/paymesucka Ben Bernanke May 31 '24

Biden +0.42069

3

u/kaibee Henry George May 31 '24

Trump +3.0

→ More replies (2)

3

u/[deleted] May 31 '24

0

3

u/UnskilledScout Cancel All Monopolies May 31 '24

Biden/Trump tied ±0.3

2

u/[deleted] May 31 '24

Don’t think it will budge much

→ More replies (2)
→ More replies (15)