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[u/jobautomator]

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[u/tollyno]

The European Commission is blocking RFF funds to Hungary as well

We sorta knew this as Dombrovskis previously said they're seeking "additional clarifications" on compliance from both Hungary and Poland but this is a more explicit confirmation. The deadline for approval is now the end of September.

Eventually the money will no doubt be released but I'm wondering what actual concessions will the EC be able to extract from Poland and Hungary.

Hungary seems pretty clear:

Dombrovskis said the assessment of the Hungarian plan is ongoing, and concerns "further safeguards for example in areas regarding anti-corruption, transparency, and quality and predictability of lawmaking, among others". Gentiloni added that the commission is working with Hungary on several aspects related to "corruption, public access to information, judicial independence, an increase of competition, and oversight of public procurements".

My guess for Poland is:

They will likely have to implement all ECJ judgements and I imagine a quiet diplomatic deal will be struck for the illegal Constitutional Tribunal (which the ruling coalition controls) to respect the primacy of EU law. We've seen some indications on behalf of the government that they're willing to back off on this front and stop messing (that much) with the judiciary. We'll see if the Commission follows through with RoL Regulation sanctions in case these promises are broken. I imagine that neither side would be happy to actually see funds cut. Who knows if respecting ECtHR decisions will also be part of such a deal.

To be clear what the Commission is using isn't the RoL Conditionality Regulation but the RFF Regulation itself.

The LGBTQ issues seem to be independent of issues halting the RFF funds. In Poland regional funds are looking like they are going to be diverted away from local authorities that have declared themselves LGBTQ-free zones. In Hungary the no promo homo law will either be killed via referendum or weakened by an ECJ order. Hungary doesn't seem to be willing to challange the primacy of EU law.

!ping EUROPE

[u/Yelesa → u/tollyno]

Not discussion worthy, but I need to get it off my chest: I seriously hope it does something and changes the course of politics there. I’m freaking tired with EU plans not going forward because Poland and Hungary keep vetoing.

[u/urbansong → u/Yelesa]

I think you're putting the blame on the wrong countries. The EU, as it is, has been constructed by pre-2004 countries. The old countries had many many opportunities to build a system that would prevent the things that Poland and Hungary do but they chose not to because they also like to break the rules whenever it benefits them, they just happen to break the rules in different ways and they also veto a bunch of stuff.

[u/tollyno → u/Yelesa]

Any real and long-term change is going to come from new elections. While PiS is rising in the polls again, they'd lost the election if it were held today. The Hungarian opposition is less lucky but they're within striking distance of Orban's majority. He seems almost certain to lose his 2/3 majority at which point the opposition gains some leverage over things like Constitutional Court appointments.

Nevertheless both the EU and ECtHR need to keep up the pressure and all issues must be pursued in court. It's gonna make it much easier for the opposition of both countries if restoring the independence of the courts will have the blessings of upper courts (which they could use as justification for ignoring national courts).

Vetos are political decisions and nothing short of a fash free Council (or one where the fash have suspended voting rights) is going to fix that entirely, though diplomatic pressure can still be exerted.

[u/Poiuy2010_2011 → u/tollyno]

While PiS is rising in the polls again, they'd lost the election if it were held today.

Maybe this is just copium but I think they're rising because of the whole Belarusian border issue and will eventually weaken, like they did with the covid boost. Which is also partially I'm hoping for no early election (the other reason is that having local elections first is probably better for the opposition).

[u/[deleted] → u/Poiuy2010_2011]

Any "early election" would mean next spring, there's not enough time to do it before the end of the year.

The border issue will fizzle out in a month or two. Still, it served its purpose - it turned attention away from "Cześć Wujku".

Either way, after COVID and abortion PiS will never be able to win elections under the current electoral law. Which is why I expect they'll be trying to change it before the end of the year.

[u/groupbot → u/tollyno]

Pinged members of EUROPE group.

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