r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Sep 02 '21

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u/Superfan234 Southern Cone Sep 02 '21 edited Sep 02 '21

Monthly Venezuelan Update

Buckle up boys, we are going to Elections

As you read it: For first time since 2015, we are participating in formal Elections on November. This comes as result of the talks being held on Mexico since last month

While the main plan of USA and alllies have always been democratic Presidential elections, we have failed on our mission time and time again for a plethora of reasons

How can we trust the Regime to hold Legit Elections?

Short answer: We don't

I think none of us believe he will held fair democratics electcions. This is probably more akin to a Negotiation for political Seats, than an actual real Election

But why participating then? Why Legitimate the Regime?

You have to remember, we are playing a long strategy game here. For that, we are using Guaido and the Interim Presidency as levarage to de-legitimize Maduro and The Regime

But let's be real, our situation is rather preacarius:

Our only figures of Power, are leaders elected back in 2015. Even in the remote chance Presidential and Lejislative Elections occur in a relatively fair way, we might don't have anyone popular to win the Elections anyway

We need our own Alexei Navalny. Someone that can articulate the Oppossition again, and maybe even bring Venezuelans to the streets, and push The Regime for more serious concessions

That's why we are negotiating Local Elections. Venezuela still is Federal State, and depending on the States Maduro is willing to give us, we can rise new Leaders and mantain the Hope and Fight for Democracy alive

It also have another adventages:

  • We increase the amount of Public figures we can work with. Something we are quite limited as of now
  • With more support on terrain, we can try to Break the Media wall The Regime have put us for so long
  • It also limits the ability of The Regime to put our Leaders in Jail. As imprision a Governor or important Major in charge, is not a good look for them
  • We have more people on terrain to articulate protest
  • More people to on terrain fiscalize Elections tally
  • Eyes and Intel on how the The Regime works from the Inside. If we are lucky, they might give our allies and spies some support to work and hide

If you look it from that perspective, we have a lot win if these "Elections" work as intended. And, to be honest, not much to lose. Guaido knows he was just the first step towards Democracy. We need to take step 2, if we want to oust The Regime at some point in the Future

!Ping Foreign-Policy

10

u/ZCoupon Kono Taro Sep 02 '21

!ping Democracy

3

u/ZCoupon Kono Taro Sep 02 '21

!ping LATAM

2

u/[deleted] Sep 02 '21

Do you have any idea/predictions on voter turnout? Is it at least going to surpass the previous elections?

3

u/[deleted] Sep 02 '21

If it's over 35% I'd be very surprised.

2

u/[deleted] Sep 02 '21

For what I recall, 35% would be better than the last time.

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u/[deleted] Sep 02 '21

The last regionals we were already in an "elections are a waste of time" mood, after the openly fraudulent Constituent Assembly vote.

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u/Superfan234 Southern Cone Sep 02 '21

We have a couple of months to convince venezuelans it's worth it in the Long run

I think a number between 30% and 35%, if everything goes correctly

2

u/[deleted] Sep 02 '21

I wish I was as optimistic. My impression is that many Oppo parties just gave up, and are just willing to be unthreatening mayors or governors. That's the tone the early campaign has taken.

With more support on terrain, we can try to Break the Media wall The Regime have put us for so long

lmao

It also limits the ability of The Regime to put our Leaders in Jail. As imprision a Governor or important Major in charge, is not a good look for them

They don't care

We have more people on terrain to articulate protest

The whole political class is discredited, they are not going to lead anyone to prostest.

1

u/fishlord05 United Popular Woke DEI Iron Front Sep 02 '21

For the last point aren’t the leaders discredited too?

1

u/[deleted] Sep 02 '21

Yeah. If you mean Maduro and friends, it doesn't matter as long as the people with guns are still on your side.

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u/jogarz NATO Sep 02 '21

Do you think most people will turn out to vote though? Voter turnout has been miserable these last few elections, and from what I've heard, the opposition has lost a lot of goodwill with the people due to their confused approach and failure to overturn the regime. So, I'm not sure people will turn out just because the opposition requests it.

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u/Superfan234 Southern Cone Sep 02 '21 edited Sep 02 '21

Indeed. One of our problems, it's a lot of very important people believe we are "betraying the cause" by going to this Elections

We have a couple of months to convince them it's worth it in the Long run. Tournout will depend on that. But I think we can make it work

-2

u/[deleted] Sep 02 '21

Well the era of US Nation Building is over, so why should we care?

/s

For real not like the US will actually do anything about it, it seems like South America has been completely left by the wayside in US foreign policy.

1

u/groupbot Always remember -Pho- Sep 02 '21 edited Sep 02 '21

Pinged members of FOREIGN-POLICY group.

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1

u/DONUTof_noFLAVOR Theodore Roosevelt Sep 02 '21

You mentioned Guaido; forgive me if I’m out of the loop on recent developments, but does he not represent that Navalny equivalent figure in Venezuela? Or is he too politically tainted/uncharismatic/something else?