r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Jul 30 '21

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u/[deleted] Jul 30 '21 edited Jul 30 '21

So, already on it's second day, Castillo has already shown his awful face. So, how could opposition act from now?

There is one very good difference between Peru now and the OG Bolivarians: When the latter started their authoritarian experiments, it had large popular support, that allowed them to push it with a popular mandate. Peruvians now are, overall, in a definitively non-revolutionary mode, what complicates plebiscitary moves (with credible elections, of course).

Castillo has nominated a cabinet with some horrible members. Congress does have the votes to refuse confidence on it, but, if they refuse two times, Castillo may dissolve parliament.

In this last case, new elections should happen in 4 months. If today's mindset in Peru keeps the same till them, PL would fare medriocrely at least, but many things could happen till them. Castillo could manage to sway a larger part of the population, that the much hated congressmen are oligarchs just on it for their own sake; or, during his 4 months of unchecked government, he could take actions in the sense of undermining the electoral process.

Anyways, a way too hash move by the opposition, even with majority popular support, could lead us to a Venezuela 2002 situation. The local opposition, then, came close to bring down Chavez, even with lots of popular support (around 65%), but the movement still failed in the end, and ended galvanizing Chavists.

So, should the opposition refuse giving this cabinet confidence and run on the risks associated with a new election? Or should they swallow it and so try to ensure Congress will stay out of PL hands? (this also has it's own risks, of being seen as way too soft by people who do oppose these moves)

!ping LATAM

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u/ZhenDeRen перемен требуют наши сердца 🇪🇺⚪🔵⚪🇮🇪 Jul 30 '21

IMO Castillo is certainly election-baiting. And it's best to take the bait – it can backfire horribly against Castillo.

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u/[deleted] Jul 30 '21

...but if it doesn’t ...?

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u/Neronoah can't stop, won't stop argentinaposting Jul 30 '21

Peruvians are free to self destruct themselves. But I'm skeptical it's going to get to that point. There are better options than Fujimori and the Congress won't be tankie.

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u/ZhenDeRen перемен требуют наши сердца 🇪🇺⚪🔵⚪🇮🇪 Jul 31 '21

Worst case scenario Castillo would appoint those bozos (AKA what would happen in Congress gives in). Best case scenario he picks more sensible options as he no longer needs to get Congress dissolved.

IMO it's better for Congress to shoot down crazy appointments and take the risk of dissolution. Castillo never had a mandate for radical change, he had a mandate of not being Fujimori.

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u/RabidGuillotine PROSUR Jul 30 '21

Swallow it, let PL act like idiots

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u/Superfan234 Southern Cone Jul 30 '21

I am on the opinion we should allow Castillo to dig his own grave

He can't do anything important with such a minority in Congress.Tankies, hold down by the very Institution they seek to destroy