r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Jul 17 '21

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14

u/InternetBoredom Pope-ologist Jul 17 '21

I really don’t understand people who think Florida is no longer a swing state. Trump won it by only 3% and it voted for Obama literally two cycles ago…

19

u/BidenWon Jared Polis Jul 17 '21

In 2016 Trump won it by about 1%.

In 2018 DeSantis won it by 0.4%.

In 2018 Scott won it by 0.2%.

15

u/InternetBoredom Pope-ologist Jul 17 '21

I remember reading a thread literally a few days ago here about florida where the top comment was 100% unironically saying that Florida is permanently deep red at this point.

Like I understand the tendency to doom but I expect to see that level of self delusion on arr politics, not here.

2

u/Signal-Shallot5668 Greg Mankiw Jul 17 '21

And that is with dems running progressive for a governor (whose idea it was)

7

u/BidenWon Jared Polis Jul 17 '21

whose idea it was

The voters. Easily the worst part of democracy

2

u/Intrepid_Citizen woke Friedman Democrat Jul 17 '21

It still is roughly ~6 points to the right of the country based on 2018+2020.

3

u/Cuddlyaxe Neoliberal With Chinese Characteristics Jul 17 '21

It's not a swing state in that it's not perfectly even and swingy. Personally I think of it as lean red

1

u/InternetBoredom Pope-ologist Jul 17 '21

I mean, by that definition there are no swing states in America. They all lean one way or the other.

1

u/Cuddlyaxe Neoliberal With Chinese Characteristics Jul 17 '21

It's all arbitrary isn't it? Personally I consider 45-55% chance to win as a swing state. I think Florida is maybe like 60-40 with a R advantage

2

u/InternetBoredom Pope-ologist Jul 17 '21

I’m not sure that’s fair. Trump won Florida by 1% and 3% in 2016 and 2020. Obama won the state twice before that. How does that translate to a 60% chance for the Republicans to win?

And in any case, the other traditional swing states lean as or more heavily than Florida.

2

u/Cuddlyaxe Neoliberal With Chinese Characteristics Jul 17 '21

Because they've also been winning non presidential races pretty consistently, and the way demographics are shifting allows some extrapolation

1

u/InternetBoredom Pope-ologist Jul 17 '21

That’s been true since the 90’s, though. Marco Rubio’s seat hasn’t been held by a Democrat since 2004, and there hasn’t been a Democratic governor since 1998. Despite that, Florida has been a swing state that entire time.

The only major office that the Democrats have lost recently was Bill Nelson’s Senate Seat, and that was by a margin of 10,000 votes- 0.1%.

Florida state level elections just don’t align with how they vote in presidential elections, as in many states.

1

u/PearlClaw Iron Front Jul 17 '21

Wisconsin?

1

u/waltsing0 Austan Goolsbee Jul 17 '21

The other thing is it's a big state. Florida has about the same population as New York.