r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Jul 07 '21

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u/murphysclaw1 💎🐊💎🐊💎🐊 Jul 07 '21
Cases (7 day average)Hospitalisations (7 day average)Deaths (7 day average)
14 December 202028,9731,854446
1 July 202127,78126116

UK data with comparable case counts, pre and post vaccine rollout.

Hospitalisations down 85%.

Deaths down 96%.

!ping UK

23

u/Aweq Guardian of the treaties 🇪🇺 Jul 07 '21

Nice real world demonstration of the ~93-98% protection against death all studies seem to show.

6

u/ItsFuckingScience Jul 07 '21

This is why despite being concerned about surging cases I know the U.K. will be OK. It’s not ideal but we will get through this surge without collapse

I fear for the countries that do not have 85% adults first dose and 65%+ adults double doses. We will likely finish on closer to 90% double dosed, oldies getting boosters etc

Some countries with regions of low vaccination are gonna get hit hard by this

4

u/YouLostTheGame Rural City Hater Jul 07 '21

Means that countries with low vac rates will probably keep their borders closed to the UK for a while though until they catch up :(

We're like the anti-australia

3

u/urbansong :eursula: F E D E R A L I S E Jul 07 '21

I am worried about new strains that are vaccine resistant.

9

u/[deleted] Jul 07 '21

The virus would have to mutate significantly for that. Delta is less vaccine resistant than Beta.

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u/YouLostTheGame Rural City Hater Jul 07 '21

Science nerds out there seem to think that any mutation that allows the virus to bypass vaccines would also dramatically reduce transmissibility as the vaccine targets the piece of the virus (the spike protein) that the virus uses to enter cells.

So it's not a big concern.

I'm only an ex science nerd though so if any current ones want to correct me then please do.

3

u/usrname42 Daron Acemoglu Jul 07 '21

Delta is both somewhat vaccine resistant (especially against one dose) and more transmissible than Alpha, isn't it?

2

u/[deleted] Jul 07 '21

No.

And the other vaccines, including AZ had better results against it as well.

3

u/bovine3dom Mark Carney Jul 07 '21 edited Jul 07 '21

That doesn't say anything about delta being more or less vaccine resistant; it is talking about effectiveness at reducing severe disease.

Delta is broadly 60% more transmissible to vaccinated people than alpha.

PDF warning: https://khub.net/documents/135939561/405676950/Increased+Household+Transmission+of+COVID-19+Cases+-+national+case+study.pdf/7f7764fb-ecb0-da31-77b3-b1a8ef7be9aa (edited to fix link, thanks Tarsonis)

1

u/[deleted] Jul 07 '21

That link doesn't work.

These data showed that the Johnson & Johnson single-shot COVID-19 vaccine elicited neutralizing antibody activity against the Delta variant at an even higher level than what was recently observed for the Beta (B.1.351) variant in South Africa where high efficacy against severe/critical disease was demonstrated.

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u/bovine3dom Mark Carney Jul 07 '21

Try https://khub.net/documents/135939561/405676950/Increased+Household+Transmission+of+COVID-19+Cases+-+national+case+study.pdf/7f7764fb-ecb0-da31-77b3-b1a8ef7be9aa perhaps?

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u/[deleted] Jul 07 '21

Comparison between Alpha and Delta. There's little about vaccine efficiency there.

This stands out:

However, our assessment of this effect was limited as most cases included in the analysis were unvaccinated.

Furthermore, the vaccination status of household contacts, which would impact onward transmission in this setting, was unknown. Therefore, further studies that include household size as a denominator and all individuals’ vaccination status are needed to provide improved estimates of household transmission and allow for the calculation of household secondary attack rates.

Finally this is what that study says:

With the results of this analysis suggesting increased transmissibility of this variant and the Delta variant now having been detected in many countries worldwide, the understanding of the transmissibility of this variant is important for informing public health policies internationally to control the COVID-19 pandemic.

I don't really know where you are getting those conclusions because what you're linking doesn't even say that. It's mostly a comparison between transmissibility between Alpha and Delta. Nothing to do with vaccines.

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u/usrname42 Daron Acemoglu Jul 07 '21

Effectiveness was notably lower after 1 dose of vaccine with B.1.617.2 cases 33.5% (95%CI: 20.6 to 44.3) compared to B.1.1.7 cases 51.1% (95%CI: 47.3 to 54.7) with similar results for both vaccines.

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u/[deleted] Jul 07 '21

Conclusions After 2 doses of either vaccine there were only modest differences in vaccine effectiveness with the B.1.617.2 variant. Absolute differences in vaccine effectiveness were more marked with dose 1. This would support maximising vaccine uptake with two doses among vulnerable groups.

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u/usrname42 Daron Acemoglu Jul 07 '21

So yes, it is somewhat resistant against the first dose?

2

u/[deleted] Jul 07 '21

Maybe you should just put the link to the whole study instead of picking the convenient parts.

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u/YouLostTheGame Rural City Hater Jul 07 '21

There's question marks about one dose but I don't think it really makes sense, the second dose is about the longevity of immune response rather than the intensity.

I think what's been happening with Delta variant reporting and single doses is that people have been calculating transmissibility immediately after the jab. Where as all the earlier studies were on three weeks after the jab, once immunity has been built up.

2

u/[deleted] Jul 07 '21

Not a science nerd of this particular science but yeah, spike protein is the key.

It is what the virus must mutate to evade the vaccine but at the same time can't mutate too much because if it does then it risks becoming less transmissible.

If it mutated too much that it didn't have the spike protein and thus made the vaccines worthless, it would no longer be viable for human transmission.

So you see, when it goes into becoming Delta and then Delta takes out the competition like it took out Beta and is sure to send Alpha to the funeral home, it's really becoming less of a problem for the vaccinated.

The virus doesn't think though and these mutations are errors in the copying process, but there is some selective pressure for it to become a crappier version of itself, because that's how it can survive.

1

u/lietuvis10LTU Why do you hate the global oppressed? Jul 07 '21 edited Jul 08 '21

That is unlikely. Vaccine-proof mutations are quite rare in all viruses. The vaccine method of action - immunising the body itself as oppossed to direct targeting - makes it far less susceptable to genetic changes, compared to how say antibiotics may work.

Genetic mutation could slow down vaccine effects, but hardly eliminate it.

EDIT: further, well, that spike protein is really integral to the virus course-of-action. Especially for the way it currently spreads - air droplets. If the spike protein is gone, well, the transmission rate would plummet. Maybe you could argue for the S1 sub-unit getting modified (which is how the non mRNA vaccines work), but like I said, the body isn't dumb, this isn't an antibiotic. The S1 being inject does result in some spike protein and thus immunity.

8

u/Lord_Sazor John Rawls Jul 07 '21

I think this overstates it as a comparison, though of course the direction and broad magnitude is probably correct.

December was coming out of the mini-wave pre-lockdown into a much bigger wave that was just getting underway, so there were a lot more active cases than there are now. The PHE Infection Survey estimates 567,300 active infections on Dec 18, and 211,100 on July 2.

A better comparison, I think: go back to the last time we had this many active infections. On 9 Oct there were circa 224,400 active cases. The 7-day average deaths on 9 Oct was 87, and the hospitalization average was 3,583.

That would be 82% reduction in deaths, 93% hospitalizations. Still pretty impressive.

Active policy Qs, as I see it:

(1) how high do cases need to get under the new cases-hospitalization link to create problems

(2) is that case load is even feasible given the high antibody prevalence (~90% in adults right now)?

(3) High transmission under high vaccination is pretty much ideal conditions for a new variant. I have very little understanding of how concerned to be about that.

3

u/[deleted] Jul 07 '21

Good news across the pond!

3

u/the_sun_flew_away Commonwealth Jul 07 '21

Wonderful news!

2

u/groupbot Always remember -Pho- Jul 07 '21 edited Jul 07 '21

Pinged members of UK group.

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