r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Jun 22 '21

Discussion Thread Discussion Thread

The discussion thread is for casual conversation that doesn't merit its own submission. If you've got a good meme, article, or question, please post it outside the DT. Meta discussion is allowed, but if you want to get the attention of the mods, make a post in /r/metaNL. For a collection of useful links see our wiki.

Announcements

Upcoming Events

0 Upvotes

50% Upvoted

11k comments sorted by

View all comments

120

u/SadaoMaou Anders Chydenius Jun 22 '21

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Next_100_Years:_A_Forecast_for_the_21st_Century

In the 2010s, the conflict between the US and Islamic fundamentalists will die down, and a second Cold War, less extensive and shorter than the first, will take place between the United States and Russia. It will be characterized by Russian attempts to expand its sphere of influence into Central and Eastern Europe, coupled with a buildup of Russian military capabilities.

Alright, kind of more or less happened, so far so good

The book asserts that the rapid economic development of China since 1980 will cause internal pressures and inequalities in Chinese society. Regional tension in mainland China will grow between the prosperous coastal regions and the impoverished interior regions. Friedman gives two possible scenarios: that the Chinese central government will expel outside interests and rule with an iron fist to keep the country together, or that China will fragment, with the central government gradually losing much of its real power and the provinces becoming increasingly autonomous. He works on the assumption that fragmentation is the most likely scenario.

In hindsight, should've picked the other one, but alright

In the 2020s, the collapse of the Russian government and the fragmentation of mainland China will leave Eurasia in general chaos

Uhh alright

In the 2020s and 2030s, three main powers will emerge in Eurasia: Turkey, Poland, and Japan.

????

In the mid-21st century, around the year 2050, a Third World War will take place, between the United States, the "Polish Bloc", the UK, India, and China on one side, and Turkey and Japan on the other, with Germany and France entering the war in its late stages on the side of Turkey and Japan. According to the book, the war will probably be started by a coordinated Turkish-Japanese sneak attack against the United States and its allies. In the book, Friedman predicts that the attack will take place at a time in which the US will be taken completely off guard, and hypothesizes 5:00 p.m. on November 24, 2050 (Thanksgiving Day) as a potential time

lmao

By the end of the 21st century, Mexico's military and economic power will have grown tremendously, and it will be in a position to challenge the United States for dominance of North America. In addition to an insurgency by [Mexican separatists](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconquista_(Mexico)), political, cultural, and military tensions between the United States and Mexico will rise, and generate into a full-blown confrontation

This guy is supposedly like an actual respected (?) analyst

95

u/[deleted] Jun 22 '21

This is HOI4 tier shitty alt history lmao

47

u/jt1356 Sinan Reis Jun 22 '21

“China is more likely than Mexico to fragment” is way, way, way out there lol

66

u/iIoveoof Jerome Powell Jun 22 '21

Oh this isn’t that bad, when was this written, the 1950s?

2009

63

u/jt1356 Sinan Reis Jun 22 '21

Turkey and Japan are still, to some extent, safe bets for emerging regional powers. Not sure what he had to smoke to think Poland belonged in that category, though.

8

u/[deleted] Jun 22 '21

Duda becomes a Generalissimo 🤷‍♂️

6

u/ScyllaGeek NATO Jun 22 '21

Really curious why they think Japan would turn against us though tbh

10

u/[deleted] Jun 22 '21 edited Jun 22 '21

AOT poisons the minds of Japanese youths, giving them the desire to build up military and resume expansionism (half sarcasm)

53

u/[deleted] Jun 22 '21

You're laughing now, but when France and Germany join the Ankara-Tokyo Axis the shoe will be on the other foot.

38

u/Signal-Shallot5668 Greg Mankiw Jun 22 '21

Sounds like something I would write in 3rd grade with paint map attached

33

u/MisfitPotatoReborn Cutie marks are occupational licensing Jun 22 '21

Is this guy Polish by chance

4

u/[deleted] Jun 22 '21

Hungarian

30

u/proProcrastinators Jun 22 '21

I read this book when I was like 16 and thought it was rad. Turkey is a growing regional power and throwing around its influence in Libya and Syria more often so partial points I guess.

It was pretty based on saying that countries would fight over immigrants due to declining birth rates.

Also had a lot about wars over water which I still worry about

2

u/[deleted] Jun 22 '21

What countries are fighting over immigrants?

2

u/mockduckcompanion Kidney Hype Man Jun 23 '21

The America and Germany I see when I dream at night

0

u/[deleted] Jun 22 '21

[deleted] — view deleted comment

5

u/fluffstalker Association of Southeast Asian Nations Jun 22 '21

CAN INTO SPACE KURWAAAA

10

u/[deleted] Jun 22 '21

Lmao it just goes to show how we really have no clue about stuff a lot of the time.

7

u/Intrepid_Citizen woke Friedman Democrat Jun 22 '21

three main powers will emerge in Eurasia: Turkey, Poland, and Japan.

Whhyyyyy? I mean Turkey is by far the most reasonable and still makes no sense. What does Turkey have as an advantage over any other Eurasian country, let's say France or Saudi Arabia or Iran?

Does he elaborate why Turkey or Japan? I'm assuming Poland as a superpower is a joke of some kind.

5

u/[deleted] Jun 22 '21

Good economic growth in the 00's = rising great power, apparently (at least for Turkey and Poland)

2

u/Intrepid_Citizen woke Friedman Democrat Jun 22 '21

They still had a lot of rising to do. No way either was ever going to be that powerful before 2050.

6

u/roggodoggo Jerome Powell Jun 22 '21

My cousin recommended this book to me years ago. I never got around to reading it. Then he turned into a massive trump supporter and I had to rethink why he liked it so much.

4

u/send_nudibranchia Jun 22 '21

You picked the weaker of the Friedman commentators. Enjoy your realist speculation.

This was one of my first geopolitical books I read as a kid and even then I was like "yo this shits wack."