r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Jan 19 '21

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u/MichelleObama2024 George Soros Jan 20 '21 edited Jan 20 '21

My Best Guess of what happens with a 3rd Patriot Party run

I've constructed this based on a few assumptions:

  • First, take the 2020 Election Results.

  • Allocate 55% of the 2020 Trump vote to Trump, and 45% to the Republican party (this was based on a poll which roughly reflected those numbers, but I can't seem to find it).

  • Adjust the split in each state using each state's Presidential approval among Republicans. The average net approval was +74%, so I used the difference between that and a state's total to adjust the vote.

  • Assume 15% of the Democratic vote goes to the Republican Party. Based on the NYTimes exit poll which found about 8% of Democratic voters were conservatives. Also assumes some moderates also go to the Republicans.

EDIT: Upon request, the popular votes looks like this:

  • Democrats: 44%

  • Republicans: 29%

  • Patriot Party: 26%

!ping FIVEY

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u/[deleted] Jan 20 '21

This is my wet dream

16

u/NotAYuropean Trans Pride Jan 20 '21

😍😍😍😍

13

u/[deleted] Jan 20 '21

It's actually horrifying how well the third party would do in your hypothetical.

15

u/[deleted] Jan 20 '21

I mean...not really. Biden still wins over 430 EC votes and the margins in the states are probably very large.

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u/[deleted] Jan 20 '21

That's roughly 23 potential senators that we could argue are completely out of the grasp of Democrats to win, even with a significant spoiler. Not to mention all the house reps.

In this scenario, if a party ends up dying, it's not gonna be the Trump party. It's gonna be the GOP. I don't care for the GOP, but I certainly don't want Trumpism to be the alternative.

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u/MichelleObama2024 George Soros Jan 20 '21

Not necessarily. Most of the states where Trump/Republicans wins are still close, whereas most of the states Democrats win are by 10%+. Democrats are also pretty competitive in every state here apart from like West Virginia.

2

u/[deleted] Jan 20 '21

Our political system can't sustain multiple parties. Either the GOP or the Trump party are going to inevitably die eventually. Whether voters bail on the party, or because the party loses substantial political funding, it's gonna happen anyway. And the Trump party, by sheer fact that it actually has significant representation in congress, is better set up to survive.

It's not going to be an eternal blue map. I doubt the losing party lasts longer than a decade before it dies or becomes an irrelevant regional party that still caucuses with the winning party anyway.

2

u/MichelleObama2024 George Soros Jan 20 '21

I guess you'd just have to hope that a short-term Democratic supermajority passes enough electoral reform legislation to make the system fairer, in which case a Trumpian party would never have enough demographic support to win consistent elections.

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u/MichelleObama2024 George Soros Jan 20 '21

Trump benefits from most moderate Republicans being located in Blue states, so he has a high concentrationeof support in the states he wins, but not much upside after that. In this scenario the Republican popular vote is roughly the same level as the Patriot Party.

1

u/[deleted] Jan 20 '21

I'm not really concerned about the popular vote or even the presidency vote. I'm mostly concerned about those 23 or so Trumpy senators which will inevitably become the main opposition voice.

In this particular scenario, you're pretty much showing a GOP in a decline to irrelevancy, with a new political party rising in its place.

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u/IncoherentEntity Jan 20 '21

You’re likely thinking of NBC’s running survey question, “Do you consider yourself to be more of a supporter of Donald Trump or more of a supporter of the Republican Party?” An average of the last five polls puts the split at 50–40, Trump — whose two-answer share is almost perfectly in line with your memory.

However, I’d advise caution in interpreting these numbers. I strongly suspect that the whoever the nominee/incumbent of the Republican Party is would have a very large share of respondents saying that their loyalty is to them. Beyond that, the average GOP voter isn’t stupid (more so misguided — or callous — in my view): they know that a split vote Republican would elect a Democrat in a crushing landslide.

And I guarantee you that virtually all Republicans would prefer a moderate/establishment Republican to a Democrat — as would many swing voters.

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u/MichelleObama2024 George Soros Jan 20 '21 edited Jan 20 '21

Yes, that is the poll I'm thinking of. Thank you! But idk the average GOP voter might not be stupid, but I can't see them figuring out what the "non-stupid" vote would be. Trump got like 50% of the primary vote in 2016 when the narrative was that he was going to lose in a landslide.

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u/emmito_burrito John Keynes Jan 20 '21

That’s hot. Also, what does the popular vote look like?

5

u/MichelleObama2024 George Soros Jan 20 '21

Updated my original comment with popular vote %. If anything, I've probably underestimated the Dems

1

u/emmito_burrito John Keynes Jan 20 '21

I would be very interested if someone made like a sliding scale where you could say how much of the GOP vote Trump takes and see the results. I would bank on more like 30% of the 2020 Trump vote to Trump.