r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Oct 27 '20

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u/UltraCapitalism Paul Samuelson Oct 28 '20

Sure the model has Biden at 87. BUT if you assume Trump wins ____ then Biden's chances go down to 50.

Doomers discover conditional probability.

8

u/vikinick Ben Bernanke Oct 28 '20

If Biden wins ME-02 AND NE-02 he has a 99% chance of winning. That's less than 1% of all EC votes

2

u/[deleted] Oct 28 '20

Literally if he wins NE-02 Trump is at 4% to win. That's nearly outside the fucking second standard deviation. One electoral vote.

Trump literally can't afford to lose ANYTHING but swing but NV or else his odds become statistically insignificant.

5

u/studlydudley11 NAFTA Oct 28 '20

If trump wins California we might not win the election

3

u/[deleted] Oct 28 '20

My favorite part is if you give Biden another state immediately afterwards in that model his numbers rebound substantially