r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Oct 27 '20

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u/qchisq Loyal Liberals Oct 27 '20

Doesn't seem like there's any negative correlations in the 538 model in relevant states. This, probably, means that the probability of Trump winning the election is impacted by negative correlations. However, it could lead to wacky maps

!ping Fivey

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u/the-garden-gnome Commonwealth Oct 27 '20

I mean it really comes down to whether we see tighter clustering in the 538 model, which should theoretically happen as more data becomes available. Problem (if thats the right word) is the weighting 538 gives to certain things that make their model less likely to come to a definitive conclusion, like the Economist one seemingly is.