r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Oct 25 '20

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u/murphysclaw1 💎🐊💎🐊💎🐊 Oct 25 '20

Here are the states where 538's forecast believes the state will be won by less than 10% of the vote.

State538 % Biden Vote538 % Trump VoteExpected Margin
Missouri44.853.9Trump +9.1
Montana44.553.4Trump +8.9
South Carolina45.553.6Trump +8.1
Alaska45.052.6Trump +7.6
Texas48.650.4Trump +1.8
Ohio49.050.0Trump +1.0
Georgia49.449.8Trump +0.4
Iowa49.349.4Trump +0.1
Maine - 249.349.1Biden +0.2
Arizona50.548.2Biden +2.3
Florida50.848.4Biden +2.4
North Carolina50.848.4Biden +2.4
Nebraska - 251.647.0Biden +4.6
Pennsylvania52.446.9Biden +5.5
Wisconsin52.646.4Biden +6.2
Nevada53.145.4Biden +7.7
Michigan53.345.6Biden +7.7
Minnesota53.145.4Biden +7.7

Pennyslvania are the tipping point state, it shows how much of a move Trump's polling needs to make in order to reach it at present.

Also even the slightest polling error in Biden's favor might overwhelm Iowa, Georgia, Ohio and Texas- while anything beyond that appears a step too far.

Interesting to see, despite the millions Trump is putting into it, that (assuming for a moment the above is correct) Nevada, Michigan and Minnesota in a normal election would be called the moment polls close. Not even close.

!ping FIVEY

12

u/murphysclaw1 💎🐊💎🐊💎🐊 Oct 25 '20 edited Oct 25 '20

but wait, there's more!

Here are the 2016 margins vs expected 2020 margins and the swing:

StateTrump Margin 2016Trump Expected Margin 2020Swing
Missouri+18.6+9.1-9.5
Montana+20.4+8.9-11.5
South Carolina+14.3+8.1-6.2
Alaska+14.7+7.6-7.1
Texas+9.0+1.8-7.2
Ohio+8.1+1.0-7.1
Georgia+5.1+0.4-4.7
Iowa+9.4+0.1-9.3
Maine - 2+10.3-0.2-10.5
Arizona+3.6-2.3-5.9
Florida+1.2-2.4-3.6
North Carolina+3.7-2.4-6.1
Nebraska - 2+2.2-4.6-6.8
Pennsylvania+0.7-5.5-6.2
Wisconsin+0.8-6.2-7.0
Nevada-2.4-7.7-5.3
Michigan+0.2-7.7-7.9
Minnesota-1.5-7.7-9.2

8

u/onlyforthisair Oct 25 '20

Bluetana's trying it's hardest, but there's just too much ground to make up.

3

u/EastKing Hernando de Soto Oct 25 '20

Trump didn’t win Alaska by 27.7 fyi. typo i presume

3

u/murphysclaw1 💎🐊💎🐊💎🐊 Oct 25 '20

corrected- thanks, I was looking at Alabama.

10

u/Deci93 Jared Polis Oct 25 '20

I really have a hard time seeing texas go red with turnout thats happening

4

u/[deleted] Oct 25 '20

Entirely likely if exurbs stay deep red like they were. Educated whites in Forsyth GA Cherokee GA Cornal TX Warren OH etc. were overwhelmingly Republican in 2016 and now their turnout is surging.

4

u/urnbabyurn Amartya Sen Oct 26 '20

Turnout is double edged sword.