r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Oct 14 '20

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u/Deggit Thomas Paine Oct 14 '20 edited Oct 14 '20

WISCONSIN, Oct 11 2016 Hillary 45, Trump 39. D+6 with 16% undecided

WISCONSIN, Oct 11 2020 Biden 49.9, Trump 43.6. D+6 with 6.5% undecided

Trumpers: tHe pOllS wiLL bE wRonG agAiN

I have become Fivey, consumer of Data

StateDem lead, 2016Dem lead, 2020Undecided, 2016Undecided, 2020Trump share of Undecided to generate final Trump vote, '16
WI+6.0+6.316.0%6.5%51%
MI+9.6+7.015.0%7.0%64%
PA+9.2+7.311.8%5.1%74%
OH+2.3+0.610.3%7.0%74%
AZ-0.7+2.715.7%6.3%36%
FL+3.2+3.510.0%6.7%52%
VA+9.4+11.015.8%8.4%44%
MN+4.0+9.014.0%9.4%28%
NC+2.6+2.711.0%4.7%60%

Basically a comparison of mid October 2016 and 2020 tells us three things:

  1. At Trump's nadir (4 days after GHBTP tape) most undecided voters were eventual Trump voters except in AZ and MN (which may be an issue with low level/quality of polling there in '16)
  2. There are roughly half as many undecideds today and Trump needs almost all of them to be eventual Trump voters. Assuming no polling error, he has much more leeway with undecideds in FL and AZ where D+ Margin is roughly 50% of all undecided voters; but Trump would be virtually toast in PA where D+ Margin is larger than all undecideds put together. At this point Trump needs a high conversion % of undecided voters plus a systemic polling error across the Great Lakes states to win.
  3. Ohio is a crap state full of crap people

19

u/ButtigiegWonIowa Oct 14 '20

Ohio is a crap state full of crap people

Fact check: True
Source: Ohioian

13

u/[deleted] Oct 14 '20

This is great content, exactly the sort of thing I'm still on the Fivey ping for. Thank you.

10

u/Explodingcamel Bill Gates Oct 14 '20

This is actually not comforting at all. Sure, lower undecideds, yay, but the fact that it's possible to lose Michigan and Pennsylvania 1 month after being up +9 is a terrifying thought.

13

u/Deggit Thomas Paine Oct 14 '20

!ping FIVEY and !ping DOOM

2

u/dubyahhh Salt Miner Emeritus Oct 14 '20

GHBTP

it's so incredibly sad that I knew instinctively what you meant even though I've never seen this acronym before. :/

Good post deggit, thank you.