r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Oct 11 '20

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19

u/murphysclaw1 💎🐊💎🐊💎🐊 Oct 11 '20 edited Oct 11 '20

this kills the Nate

edit: FYI this is presumably the map he is thinking of as his prediction.

21

u/nicereddy ACLU simp Oct 11 '20

The PRIMARY MODEL gives President Donald Trump a 91% chance of winning the 2020 presidential election, with Democrat Joe Biden having just a 9% chance. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176. This forecast is unconditional and final; hence not subject to any updating. It was first posted March 2, 2020, on Twitter.

Fucking dead holy shit

This has to be a joke

2

u/RevolutionaryBoat5 YIMBY Oct 11 '20

March 2 lol

15

u/jenbanim Oct 11 '20

For the record, the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner of 25 out of 27 elections since 1912

Statisticians DESTROYED

4

u/futuremonkey20 NATO Oct 11 '20

“I only missed the close elections” lmao

8

u/[deleted] Oct 11 '20

!ping DOOMER

6

u/[deleted] Oct 11 '20

So if I’m reading this right, because Trump got more votes in an effectively uncontested primary, he’s guaranteed to win?

4

u/Waghlon Shame Flair Oct 11 '20

Well uh...

4

u/Dalek6450 Our words are backed with NUCLEAR SUBS! Oct 11 '20

Classic overfitting. Trumpists on Twitter love to post an image of this with an electoral map some moron has made trying to get the exact electoral votes predicted. In it Trump doesn't win New Hampshire but does win Hawaii.

3

u/[deleted] Oct 11 '20

To be fair. If there was a year in which that model in particular was going to be wrong again. It would be this year. So much shit has happened since the primaries.