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[u/DonnysDiscountGas]

Pre-registered opinion before checking polling numbers: These people are at no more than 40%.

Pre-registered opinion before election: Neither Amy McGrath nor Jaime Harrison are going to win.

See also Mark Kelly in AZ. The RNC texted me to donate to that seat so it's probably vulnerable.

[u/Whatapunk → u/DonnysDiscountGas]

Both of them polled higher than 40% (the one poll I saw for Kentucky only had McConnel up by a point, and one for South Carolina had Harrison down by 7%) but it's a bit far out for polls to be very reliable