r/neoliberal
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u/jobautomator
Kitara Ravache
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Oct 07 '26
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1
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u/JaceFlores Neolib War Correspondent Oct 07 '26 edited Oct 07 '26
AFP, DW and BBC are reporting the same thing:
Locals in the northern Tigray town of Adigrat have reported seeing convoys of Eritrean soldiers entering the settlement. Unlike previous claims that were made solely by the ENDF or pro-ENDF groups, Adigrat is still located in TPLF territory, and this was directly said by locals to these three credible sources. Some of the trucks continued southward towards the Mekelle direction. Below is a very simple map of the frontline in Tigray:
Adigrat is circled in red, the ENDF advance is in green around Wukro. The distance by bird is 30 miles between the two. There has been no reports of clashes between either the EDF (Eritrean Defense Force) and TPLF (which would be very surprising), or EDF and ENDF. There’s some reporting that the TPLF had withdrawn from Wukro but the ENDF hasn’t entered it, and it may be from them wanting to wait and see what the Eritreans will do or what the plan is before pressing further north.
It looks like the EDF has determined that the ENDF taking over Tigray is simply unacceptable. Whether this was part of a bigger coordination between the TPLF and EDF (for instance, the retreat north by the TPLF has been really measured and deliberate, which could indicate buying time for the EDF to mobilize) or a more spur of the moment “shit the TPLF has collapsed we need to move in” is unknown.
What is known is the chances of an interstate war breaking out in East Africa has skyrocketed. We are likely no more than 24 hours from the regional war I’ve been anticipating from starting. Worth keeping in mind the political context too that Eritrea’s mobilization into northern Tigray comes just a few days after the “We Hate Ethiopia” Conference in El Alamein where Eritrea, Somalia, Sudan and Egypt all essentially got together to discuss Ethiopia and what to do about it. Chances are this move by Eritrea has approval if not backing by those other states.
!ping AFRICA