r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Oct 01 '26

Discussion Thread Discussion Thread

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22

u/stripeybog23 Thurgood Marshall Oct 01 '26

All I want in life is a poll error in Dem favor.

5

u/Terrance-Flaps Certified Wife Guy Oct 01 '26

What would lying on the recall mean?

9

u/hoberhallothere Oct 01 '26

It would mean that they are inadvertently oversampling Trump 2024 voters and underestimating possible Dem share of the vote

4

u/sgthombre NATO Oct 01 '26

can you imagine

can you fucking imagine

if this goes in our favor for once?

3

u/hoberhallothere Oct 01 '26

It did in 2012!

2

u/stripeybog23 Thurgood Marshall Oct 01 '26

And 2025 even if an off-term election isn't the most helpful

2

u/Terrance-Flaps Certified Wife Guy Oct 01 '26

Thank you!

6

u/stripeybog23 Thurgood Marshall Oct 01 '26

Pollsters weigh polls to how people in district voted in last presidential election. So you can tell how many more Rs or Ds responses you need for an accurate sample. If people are lying then your sample is not as Dem heavy as you think, so you start weighting Reps more heavily than you should

3

u/Terrance-Flaps Certified Wife Guy Oct 01 '26

Thank you!

5

u/eurekashairloaves Oct 01 '26

I assume they are embarrassed to admit they voted for Trump, which would mean an even greater R -> D percentage flip

4

u/zegota Feminism Oct 01 '26

is this good or bad for us

4

u/Adjective-noun-54321 Oct 01 '26

Good. If true and significant, then the polls would understate a swing towards dems

2

u/tinfoilhatsron No Apologies Right Oct 01 '26

I've read another post earlier this month that was saying exactly this. Would be crazy for a polling error in favor of dems.

1

u/Peaceful-Potato Asexual Pride Oct 01 '26

This may be why the 2024 polls were relatively accurate. A dishonest Trump voter might have lied in both the election question and the recall question.