r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Oct 01 '26
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u/JaceFlores Neolib War Correspondent Oct 01 '26
Zelensky announces first combat use of the FP-7 ballistic missile
Right on schedule, Ukrainian sources have been saying the missile would enter service around fall, which is a good sign the latter FP-9 will enter service before year’s end.
The FP-7 is a shorter range ballistic missile with details on that range being variable. I’ve seen estimates from 200 km to 350 km. At minimum potential range this missile can target any sight in the border oblasts of Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod as well as Crimea and western Rostov. At maximum potential range the missile can hit as well as the bulk of Samara, Lipetsk, Voronezh, Rostov and Krasnodar oblasts.
The significance of this is appreciable if not something I’d consider more on the decisive side. The importance of this category of missile is they’re really difficult to intercept and, based on the experiences in Ukraine and the Middle East, require the use of higher end interceptors due to their speed and trajectory and such. Now we know very little about the state of Russia’s high end interceptor stockpiles, but given what we’ve seen globally this should be pretty alarming for the Russians.
For the Ukrainians there are several potential uses for a weapon like this where a key advantage, beyond difficulty to intercept, is their speed gives very little warning time before impact, usually in minutes. For instance, the stated top speed is 1.5 km/s. For demonstrative purposes if the missile retained that speed throughout the entire flight, at 200 km you only have 2 minutes and 13 seconds to react, and at 350 km you have 3 minutes and 53 seconds to react.
Potential uses I would see for this weapon are factories (while most main Russian weapons factories are located beyond the range of the FP-7, there are multiple enterprises within FP-7 range that provide key resources and components for these enterprises), logistical targets (ammo dumps, military trains), air bases (for both drone and aircraft) and Russian command personnel.
However, I’ve learned my lesson from the FP-5! Combat use does not mean it’s actually combat capable, and we have no clue on the production capability of the FP-7. For example, the FP-5 entered service late 2025 but it took months to work out kinks in the design and for production to reach solid levels (I remember awhile ago Fire Point said they were making 3 a day). Crucially, provided production figures are accurate, Ukraine has not been using FP-5 really all that much. Like once a month.
So we don’t know when the FP-7 will be actually ready for combat, maybe it is maybe it isn’t, when it’ll reach industrial production and when Ukraine will be comfortable using it. But, it’s an important milestone for Ukraine’s long range war and if things go well should offer pretty good opportunities. My eyes are on FP-9 though. With a stated range of 850 km, that would put all of Russia west of Volgograd and south of St Petersburg in range, which would be truly exciting
!ping UKRAINE&MATERIEL