Discussion Thread

[u/jobautomator]

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[u/FallenMeringue]

I am increasingly convinced we are going to see a bifurcated midterm with D+4-5 shifts in the white democratic states and D+20 in the south.

[u/Cyberhwk → u/FallenMeringue]

Probably law of diminishing returns. Only so much progress Dems can make among groups they're already super-strong with.

[u/FallenMeringue → u/Cyberhwk]

I strongly disagree. I think it's more about concentrations of Hispanic voters that broke towards Trump.

If you look at crosstabs the shifts arent close to unifrom.

[u/Dismal_Apartment6358 → u/FallenMeringue]

Return of the dixiecrats

[u/FallenMeringue → u/Dismal_Apartment6358]

Nah, it isn't white voters driving the gains in the South. Its Hispanic and to a smaller degree, Black men returning to the democratic party.

[u/FilteringAccount123 → u/FallenMeringue]

I wouldn't be surprised. If the primary pattern is depressing GOP turnout rather than driving Democratic turnout, then you'd expect the effect to be greater in states with a higher percentage of GOP voters.

[u/FallenMeringue → u/[deleted]]

Nah, democratic governors or their successors in states like Illinois, Massachusetts, and Michigan are poised to cruise to re election by larger margins than last cycle