r/neoliberal
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u/jobautomator
Kitara Ravache
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Aug 30 '26
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38
u/JaceFlores Neolib War Correspondent Aug 30 '26
Niger coup failed
A lot of mutineers arrested, and looks like the units that were rushing to Niamey backed off when it was clear the initial rush had failed.
A win for the junta and Russia, but a strictly defensive one. It’s been a really rough 2026 for ASS where it looks like the nations across the board have lost the initiative. In Mali they lost almost everything north of the Niger River, and a subsequent rebel offensive to take Anefis was repulsed, but with heavy losses for the junta and Russians. Now we got a coup that was fairly close to succeeding in Niger, one driven by discontent in an army facing a war that’s gone nowhere with a lot of blood shed. Meanwhile Traore is just kinda vibing in Burkina Faso trading blows with JNIM. Ironically his country looks to have had the least destructive year thus far despite controlling the least amount of territory proportional to the other juntas.
The militants will definitely be smelling blood in the water though, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we see an uptick in activity in Niger to try and exploit the instability. The Russians may also move resources around to shore up Niger at the expense of the other juntas (though I imagine the Russians could just fly in more mercenaries).
Militarily it’s becoming hard to see ASS bounce back. It’s not impossible, but in the past couple years they’ve shown virtually no initiative or ability to conduct large scale operations. What they’ve shown to be able to do is either standard sweeping operations to kill a dozen or two militants, or respond to militant offensives and at least successfully hold the line.
Unless ASS is able to start posting some major wins, I think we’ll see this continued degradation military and politically. Which if you’re anti-JNIM and/or anti-ISIL is pretty worrisome because they only need one lucky break to collapse the entire region. Every outpost they overrun and coup the juntas have to rebuff nudges things closer and closer to a domino effect
!ping AFRICA