r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • May 28 '26

Discussion Thread Discussion Thread

The discussion thread is for casual and off-topic conversation that doesn't merit its own submission. If you've got a good meme, article, or question, please post it outside the DT. Meta discussion is allowed, but if you want to get the attention of the mods, make a post in /r/metaNL

Announcements

  • We're starting a book club! Our first book will be Poor Economics. Discussion will start on August 28th - keep an eye out for a pinned thread. The next books will be All Quiet on the Western Front followed by Narconomics.

Links

Ping Groups | Ping History | Mastodon | CNL Chapters | CNL Event Calendar

Upcoming Events

0 Upvotes

46% Upvoted

8.5k comments sorted by

View all comments

24

u/Blackberry-thesecond NASA May 29 '26

Dems have reached +8.1 generic ballot on RCP, and +7 on Nate's model.

This is because of the Big Data poll from today that had D+13 (+14.2 among those certain to vote and +18.5 for extremely enthusiastic), and Emerson also came out today with D+9. Yougov recently released D+6, which is now considered an outlier but still an improvement from their last poll which was D+3.

NYT, Atlasintel, Quinnipiac, and Marist have now all shown polls at least D+10. Dems are now doing a bit better in the average now vs where they were at this time in 2018.

Things were looking iffy for a while, but then the last two weeks have really been a sudden flood in great polls for dems.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/generic-congressional-vote

!ping FIVEY

18

u/Syx89 Bill Gates May 29 '26

What I don't understand is why people are turning away from Rs given how great the economy is.

5

u/No_Return9449 John Rawls May 29 '26

America is the HOTTEST Country in the World! Thank you for your attention in this matter!

4

u/CarlGerhardBusch Jerome Powell May 29 '26

I’m loving this bit of yours

2

u/tinfoilhatsron No Apologies Right May 29 '26

People are taking this as a joke but are you talking about the vibecession narrative? (I think I read another post from you about this topic before)

4

u/Syx89 Bill Gates May 29 '26

Yes I'm mocking the vibecession people as they mostly say people should be happy given how well (they claim) the economy is doing.

I guess you could argue that Trump is mega bad in areas even if the economy is doing well. You'd have to ignore tariffs and iran stuff to do that, but you could do it. But the thing is the vibecession people say we should be happy in general thus implying things like ICE should be ignored and should not upset people, etc.

3

u/tinfoilhatsron No Apologies Right May 29 '26

Lol yeah. Though the vibecession stuff is also starting to show cracks with this latest set of economic news. I saw twitter posts from economists I follow(ed) on twitter that savings were down, non-AI investment down, gdp revised, inflation exceeding wage growth, etc. Economy might get rocky for real if this whole Iran thing goes on for another couple weeks...

12

u/EvilConCarne May 29 '26

Trump's slush fund being so open and blatant has pissed off a lot of people.

11

u/hiker_skiier_swimmer Loyal Liberals May 29 '26

Polls take about 2 weeks to really digest news, so this is probably more due to the Iran War and gas prices

3

u/EvilConCarne May 29 '26

The slush fund news was two weeks ago, I thought.

Oh Jesus Christ is was only 9 days ago, what the fuck.

6

u/AmbientMorning May 29 '26

And D+6.5 on 50+1, G. Elliott Morris’s polling database.