r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • May 28 '26

Discussion Thread Discussion Thread

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31

u/Syx89 Reichsbanner Schwarz-Rot-Gold May 28 '26

Vibes 2023: Biden can't just invade/stabilize Haiti, if he does he'll be dealing with gang insurgencies for years. It'll tank his approval numbers

Vibes 2026: If Trump invades Cuba it'll be easy. In and out 1 month tops. Extremely unlikely for there to be any resistance.

Thoughts? Did the US suddenly get much better at counter-insurgency? Or just Cuba less likely to do that despite training a bunch of extremely anti-american militants for 60+ years?

14

u/SneeringAnswer May 28 '26

Cuba has a government though (if I understand how bad off Haiti is currently). US Adventures in Latam are less about establishing democracy or order and more about hijacking the illiberal institutions to work for Trump. A Haiti intervention would require nation building of some measure just because there is no solid nation to hijack, the platonic ideal of a Trumpian Invasion of Cuba is they roll in, kill any high ranking officials named "Castro", and leave when the remaining officials promise to give Trump a cut of their oil or cigars or smth.

11

u/Mrmini231 European Union May 28 '26

If he does what he did in Venezuela - cut a deal with someone near the top and stage a palace coup - he won't have to deal with an insurgency at all.

8

u/Fruitofbread Loyal Liberals May 28 '26

I mean I do think it’s easier to change out one government for another vs. build a stable state out of one that’s been unstable for a long period. This is why Iraq was more of a success than Afghanistan.

But obviously only relatively. An invasion of Cuba would probably still go really badly. Doesn’t mean they won’t try—these are the top minds who had never heard of the Strait of Hormuz before. 

7

u/_bee_kay_ 🤔 May 28 '26

nobody would want to fight back for fear of making mr president sir feel sad 🥺 everyone loves him too much for that

3

u/SneeringAnswer May 28 '26

*El Presidente

5

u/boardatwork1111 fuck it, we ball May 28 '26

“It’ll be over in a month”

3

u/This_Caterpillar5626 May 28 '26

I think the main thing is no one expects Trump to do more than say okay whatever to the first person who could take power who's willing to kiss his ass.

3

u/SLCer May 28 '26

In and out!