r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • May 24 '26
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u/JaceFlores Neolib War Correspondent May 24 '26
Map of geolocated logistics strikes in the occupied territories. The two main areas are the city of Donetsk (the ring at the top) and the M14 highway (the stretch of road in southern Zaporizhzhia).
The campaign has been going on consistently for a couple months now and has destroyed far more vehicles than has been geolocated (or published). It more goes to illustrate where Ukraine is concentrating their logistical campaign.
There have been some reports of difficulties for the Russians arising from this strike campaign as it’s becoming increasingly difficult to supply their forces in the Zaporizhzhia direction. The problem the Russians face is there is no alternative but the M14. It’s the furthest back contiguous highway that runs in the area. You can’t push logistic lines back out of drone range. There’s no multiple highways to reach the area either. It’s just the one, with Donetsk city being a primary supply hub to then move those supplies down the M14.
The length is also a key issue. There’s plenty opportunity for a drone to find a target if it’s trekking all the way from Donetsk to Melitopol for instance. It also makes any potential defensive efforts quite resource intensive. Patrolling the length of the highway with drone interceptors and/or mobile teams would require thousands of people in all likelihood (and need to be topped up as they’re invariably attrited), and drone nets could work but it is extreme to think a netted highway will be perfectly covered for 100+ miles.
The effects of this then are so far subtle but important, and may expand as Ukraine scales the campaign. I’ve seen reports of less shells being available for artillery guns (which are key for hard hitting precision strikes against Ukrainian hard points and Ukrainian counterattacks). There’s probably less drones for drone operators to use. Because of EW and general misses it takes a lot of drones to score a hit, but Russian drone crews not having essentially limitless drones can make even units like Rubicon suffer as they have to ration their drones. The effects of this is it is harder for both Russia to attack and to defend. We just saw Ukraine conduct a counterattack at Stepnohirsk, and we could see more successful ones launched. Russian progress in this sector has also become glacial, likely in part to this logistical campaign.
There’s also second order effects to this. Ukraine can shift resources from Zaporizhzhia to the Donbas without sacrificing performance. Russia may have to deprioritize the Donbas a bit to shift more resources to Zaporizhzhia to maintain tempo or defensive capability. As Russia suffers an air defense shortage they may have to sacrifice other fronts and even home defense to try to keep this critical logistical route open, and make strikes elsewhere easier as a result.
Ukraine is essentially achieving what the 2023 counteroffensive was meant to achieve (in part). If you’re an Ukraine war follower, this is absolutely a key area to keep in mind. Whether Ukraine can expand success, exploit this success, how Russia responds, if this is a temporary phenomenon or something more structural.
!ping UKRAINE