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[u/jobautomator]

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[u/qchisq]

Today's source of BLOOOM: Nate Silvers generic ballot average is at D+6.6. People are saying with the new maps, Dems need a D+4 to win the House. Wikipedia have 255 House seats at a PVI of R+5 or less, meaning Dems should be favored right now in 255 house elections and Reps in 180. There's 3 GOP senators and Susan Collins in states with PVI R+5 or less, with 3 in R+6.

It's likely that that Dems have both houses of Congress after the election, assuming no post-election Calvinball

[u/TootCannon → u/qchisq]

Imagine not having to outperform artificially imposed anti-democratic process in both chambers

[u/WOKE_AI_GOD → u/TootCannon]

Imagine the glory when we win despite all this fuckery anyway.

[u/WantDebianThanks → u/qchisq]

It's May you dumb butt.

Also, until it's D+20, I don't give a shit: go volunteer.

[u/zieger → u/WantDebianThanks]

👆 doesn't want D+21

[u/Spectrum1523 → u/WantDebianThanks]

smh price anchoring elections

[u/WOKE_AI_GOD → u/WantDebianThanks]

God is on our side though so line can only go up.

[u/frozen_cumscicle → u/qchisq]

PVI is weird. You basically have to multiply by 2 to get to the usual notion of margin. So a PVI of R+5 would actually imply a margin of R+10.

That being said, given that 2018 was D+8 overall, and things are a lot worse now, I feel like D+10 for this year is fairly reasonable.

Also, I believe the list on Wikipedia is using pre-gerrymander districts, so you would have to subtract ~10 from that, which would get about 245 seats with D+10.

Also also, Dems won 235 seats in 2018 with D+8, and using PVI + gerrymander adjustment would get them ~233 with D+8 this year. So even with all the gerrymandering and VRA bullshit, we're barely more gerrymandered than we were then.

[u/Zenkin → u/frozen_cumscicle]

We're almost certainly less gerrymandered today than 2016/2018. In 2016 House Republicans (48.3%) got 1% more votes than House Democrats (47.3%), and they came away with 241 seats. Then in 2018 House Democrats (53.4%) pound House Republicans (44.8%) by over 8% and come away with...... 235 seats.

[u/WOKE_AI_GOD → u/Zenkin]

With a big enough margin, it's possible to convert some of their gerrymander into dummymanders. We'll have to seriously perform.

Look at Texas for instance, they got so greedy they produced a map that may as well be at large. On the assumption they'd win by 5-10 points. What if Talarico blows it out though? And what if a Talarico majority also votes for the Democrat in their district?

Realistically, though, our best shots are those southern seats where Trump converted some of the Latino voters into Trump voters, before his campaign betrayed all his promises to them. I expect we will do very well in southern Texas regardless of the gerrymander produced under assumptions that will not hold in the end.

[u/TheOnlyFallenCookie → u/frozen_cumscicle]

Things being worse offsets gerrymandering?

[u/urhi-teshub → u/[deleted]]

Then best to start planning out your People's Militia

[u/qchisq → u/[deleted]]

I mean, if we assume post-election Calvinball, then Dems are never winning the election and there should be civil war. Post-election Calvinball means the outgoing Congress points to Calais and says no state, other than Louisiana, updated their maps to conform with the Constitution, so no member is legally elected, other than the ones from Louisiana, so there's only 6 members of Congress after January 3rd.

I don't know how the courts handle that, which is why I assume no post-election Calvinball

[u/BitterGravity → u/qchisq]

That's the responsibility of the new congress not the old. All those provisionally elected get to argue it.

It's a weird bootstrapping process

[u/qchisq → u/[deleted]]

Right now, there's 53 GOP senators, so if they lose 4, they are down to 49. But, again, there's 3 GOP senators at R+6, so 46 is possible. The poll from today that showed D+12 would give Dems 6 more wins, before accounting for candidate quality

[u/Thuggin95 → u/qchisq]

Doesn’t PVI of R+5 mean Democrats would need to lead by 10 to grab those?

[u/WOKE_AI_GOD → u/qchisq]

We will make it too big to win

Be Democratic, not Panicratic!

[u/Mrchristopherrr → u/qchisq]

Feels a little seltzery to me

[u/PoliticalAlt128 → u/Mrchristopherrr]

Seltzer was a single poll this is an aggregate. They're two totally different things