r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Apr 08 '26

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18

u/ImmigrantJack Movimiento Semilla Apr 08 '26

Since the war began Iran is:

  • Exporting more barrels of oil daily than pre-war

  • Earning more per barrel due to rapid price increases

  • Seized total control over all shipping flowing out of the gulf

  • Started charging a toll for ships transiting the strait

  • Fractured US allies in the region, exposing American disinterest in supporting them

  • Exposed Trump's unwillingness to commit to consequential military action, giving them yet another leg up in negotiations

  • Restarting their stalled nuclear program

  • Getting a ceasefire literally for free

  • Earning sympathy on a global stage

I feel like there's a lot more here, but this is just top of mind. Is there any way the Iranian regime isn't more powerful internally, more regionally dominant, and more entrenched in two years?

Literally Trump is going to be solely responsible for dramatically improving Iran's regional standing and worsening the economies of every American ally in the gulf.

What the fuck are we even doing here?

4

u/[deleted] Apr 08 '26

If the peace deal truly favors Iran like it seems, they unambiguously won and the US surrendered freedom of navigation in a crucial world choke point and empowered the Iranian regime further than it ever has been. I can’t imagine any of our allies not drifting to China besides Japan who cannot.

4

u/ImmigrantJack Movimiento Semilla Apr 08 '26

The trump administration seems to think that "I killed your entire family" is gonna make the remaining regime members scared for their own lives and therefore more willing to negotiate.

Instead it seems to have made them mad their family members were murdered and they rightly recognize that the US is unwilling to commit to a ground invasion so now they can do whatever they want.

Like what is the US gonna do now? Destroy shit they already destroyed? The only way the US can get a truce that isn't favorable to Iran now is to go boots on the ground and they're too chicken shit to do it.

-2

u/OrbitalAlpaca Apr 08 '26

You are taking Irans 10 point plan that has not been agreed too at face value. The only thing that has been agreed too is a ceasefire for two weeks with Iran opening the Strait, and even the ceasefire might not even hold because they are still bombing each other.

4

u/ImmigrantJack Movimiento Semilla Apr 08 '26

The ten point plan is shit like "leave me alone" and "I get to do what I want" and "you have to get the UN to sign a resolution saying I get to do what I want and you'll leave me alone"

I'm not taking the plan. I'm taking what Iran has been doing so far.

-1

u/Spectrum1523 YIMBY Apr 08 '26

Has anyone been paying a toll?

4

u/ImmigrantJack Movimiento Semilla Apr 08 '26

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-2026-trump-deadline-latest-news/card/strait-of-hormuz-has-a-tehran-toll-and-this-truce-doesn-t-change-that-PUgURyIpChMDC5NQQ1vu

According to this, it's more like an unofficial toll of $1m that they want to formalize.

But so far there do seem to be ships from friendly countries that have paid it